How accurate are political polls?

UMKC Political Asst. Professor Dr. Beth Miller said each polling house uses a different formula for how they calculate whether or not to include a caller in the poll.

 

"I think the best advice for how do you deal with polls is don't look at one individual poll. Take a look at some of the compilation sites," she said.

 

And the pool of people only include those who still have landline phones.

 

"There is a concern that most people are not home during the day and most people that might actually be interested in the election are not people with landlines at all," Miller said.

 

Some polls are now including results from polling on the Internet.

 

"The truth of the matter is that Internet polling is probably even risker than just sticking with landline numbers because with the Internet polling you really are at risk of not knowing who ends up in the poll,"  Miller said.

 

Analysts say polling is important, but it still comes down to voter turnout. If people don't show up next Tuesday the polling won't matter.

 

Miller suggests polls like Real Clear Politics and New York Times FiveThirtyEight because these polls combine many of the major national polls and it gives you a better sampling.