Gary Lezak's summer forecast 2012

Hotter days are ahead of us. This is something we know! But, will it be a hot and dry summer, or will it be wet and not-so-hot summer?

The weather pattern continues to cycle according to my theory -- the LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle).

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The same weather pattern that brought us the lowest amount of snow in Kansas City's history (3.9") continues to cycle. We also had the warmest October to April in Kansas City history as well.

The jet stream will be lifting north during the next few weeks. And, summer will settle in, but what does this same weather pattern mean for summer in Kansas City?

We see at least two possible scenarios. The first one is that the jet stream lifts north into its normal summer position and much of nation begins to sizzle. A hot and dry summer could be the result in Kansas City with this first scenario.

A second scenario would potentially lift the jet stream farther north than usual and this could result in a tropical easterly flow developing across the southern United States. This would mean a slightly cooler summer with higher humidity and good chances for rain and thunderstorms at times.

According to my theory, however, there is much more to it than these two possible scenarios.

The pattern is cycling and there will likely be ups and downs with weak cold fronts making it south into our region. This is such a complex pattern that I am expecting it to be a summer that is more likely to have near average to slightly above average temperatures and near average precipitation. Kansas City averages over 4 inches of rain in July, but only around 2 1/2 inches of rain in August. I am expecting us to have near these averages.

A new weather pattern will begin evolving in late summer and as autumn approaches. Until then, it is more of the same as we cycle through the same pattern from last winter.

We will have updates on 41 Action News as summer approaches. And, we will go more in-depth on the Action Weather Blog. If you ever have any weather questions, you can always ask in the blog.

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