KANSAS CITY, Missouri - Our winter forecast will be coming out Tuesday night at 10 PM. We use the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle) and other factors that are weighed in and analyzed to make our winter forecast.
Last week we asked our most faithful viewers, the NBC Action Weather Bloggers, to come up with their own winter forecasts and they did a great job. Here are some of the excerpts from their predictions.
Here is an example of how much thought our loyal bloggers put in to the winter forecast. Nick1 says,
Well I have noticed the semi-permanent ridge just off to our west over the Rockies and the north west flow regime, so yea I see lots of dry, and a lot of up and down temps through the winter, with the ups winning out for the averages, but when the pattern in amplified or blocks up could still get some good arctic shots.
I know 9 inches is low and one big storm could smash that, It doesn’t take much moisture to get a good snow especially if the snow falls in an arctic or near arctic air mass. But if I am low on the snow prediction it won’t bother me a bit, but this “winter” will be a back to reality winter for the heartland.
KCBearcatfan predicts the following:
My Winter Forecast:
Dec 1-15: Cool avg high 40, 1-3 inches of snow.
Dec. 16-31: warmer avg. high around 45.
Jan. 1-15: Cold streak highs around 25 very windy with blizzard conditions in Central Kansas, KC gets 4-6 inches of snow.
Jan 16-31: Warmer highs around 35 snow melts and ice storm sets in. .25 inches of ice.
Feb 1-28: Mild, highs around 40 little to no precip.
March 1-15 Highs around 40 1-3 inches of snow early.
March 16-31, Major snow storm develops dumps 1 foot at KCI 1-3 inches in Olathe.
I think this winter will have Below Average precipitation, Below Average snowfall, and Near Average temperatures. Specifically, I think we will have 11 inches of snow this winter at KCI Airport. My reasoning is this:
Through 33 days (since Oct. 1), the new “LRC cycle” seems to be dominated by ridging across the Rockies and Plains and troughing over the eastern U.S. This has resulted in mild temperatures so far in KC
Following the LRC for some time it is scary to think that this cycle will appear again and we be this dry in the winter months. That alone has the making for a bit depressing time with cold temps and no storm action around. The law of averages would hopefully equate into an abundance of moisture at some point to make up the shortfall we are currently having.
Thank you to all of the bloggers, who always come through, for participating in the winter prediction.
Would you like to see more predictions from the bloggers?
Click here to see the post on the NBC Action Weather Blog