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Declining enrollment is putting pressure on school districts across Johnson County, costing them thousands of dollars for every student lost.

In the Shawnee Mission School District, enrollment dropped by about 250 students last year, resulting in an unexpected loss of about $4 million, according to Superintendent Dr. Mike Schumacher. Now, the district is trying to make up for the shortfall.

Ive learned from the Mid America Regional Council that the biggest factors driving this trend overall are lower birth rates and a low stock of affordable housing.

"The biggest factor is it appears women aren't having as many kids," Frank Lenk said.

Lenk is the economic research director for the Mid America Regional Council.

"As long as the homes seem so out of reach of many people, then it feels like I'm not really achieving, you know, what I had expected. That leads to that gloomy feeling," Lenk said. "In order for birth rates to rebound is that homes have to become more affordable would be one, one piece of that puzzle.

After previously looking at how these factors impacted the Blue Valley and Olathe school districts, I took my questions to Shawnee Mission. Behind the numbers, parents worry that declining enrollment could mean changes inside the classroom.

"It makes me so nervous about what's going to happen," Emily Meissen-Sebelius said.

Meissen-Sebelius is a Shawnee Mission parent facing the growing challenge of fewer students. Her biggest fears center around class sizes and teacher support.

"The schools are great at figuring out how to best our students with what we have, but it's just getting harder and harder," Meissen-Sebelius said. "I'm so worried we're going to lose that full time social worker, and that would be devastating for our building.

Shawnee Mission School District Superintendent Dr. Mike Schumacher says that is a very real possibility. He noted the biggest enrollment shifts are happening at the elementary school level.

"While I see a need for 34 elementary counselors at $3 million, that's how much it would cost us, I can't make that recommendation," Schumacher said.

"Some of our buildings, we have some predicted enrollments of around 200 kids, and then some of those elementary schools almost approaching 700," Schumacher said.

Another cause impacting Shawnee Mission more than any other district Ive looked at is a decrease in immigration.

"The other was immigration concerns," Schumacher said. "Where we saw those declines was kind of along the I-35 corridor. That's where we have our kind of lower SES buildings, some transient population, our Title schools.

Lenk validated that claim, noting changes in international migration.

"International migration, and that has also stopped, or dramatically less than the last year or so," Lenk said.

Schumacher is weighing how to respond, which could include asking voters for help. He expects the district to see a steady decline over the next 10 years, but not one as dramatic as they saw this past year. Right now, all options are on the table.

"We intend to make a recommendation to our Board of Education in November of a resolution of a bond in March of 2027," Schumacher said.

If it comes to a bond issue, Meissen-Sebelius said she would support her district.

"Public schools are incredibly important to us," Meissen-Sebelius said.

However, she is looking for answers first.

"What's going to happen, and how much kind of how much notice will we have about these things?" Meissen-Sebelius said.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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School districts across the Kansas City area are facing tough decisions as declining enrollment impacts their budgets. The Mid-America Regional Council points to lower birth rates and a lack of affordable housing as the biggest factors driving the trend.

"In order for birth rates to rebound ... homes have to become more affordable; [that] would be one piece of that puzzle," said Frank Lenk, MARC economic research director.

Johnson County is struggling significantly with affordable housing, forcing the school district to make difficult decisions to align funding with enrollment.

Blue Valley Superintendent Gillian Chapman said the district was hit especially hard this year.

"We were surprised and taken a little bit off guard by about 163 student decline," Chapman said.

While the number of students might not sound huge, the resulting loss in funding is significant.

"A million dollars that we were expecting that won't materialize," Chapman said.

Chapman said the financial burden will fall on families.

Kate Blythe has three children in the district who are all part of the strings program, which will be scaled back to cover costs.

"It's disappointing," Blythe said. "There are decisions that are being made that are going to take things away from the reason that we came to Blue Valley in the first place."

Since Blythe moved her family to the Blue Valley School District, its become increasingly harder to do so. The average home price in the area is upwards of $700,000.

"For a family to start out with their child in kindergarten in Blue Valley, that might be a stretch," Chapman said.

Enrollment is only one piece of the larger school funding puzzle. Blue Valley is also facing an $18 million budget shortfall because the district is missing special education funding from the state.

"The only options that we have are to reduce programming and also increase fees for families," Chapman said.

Jennifer Jarrell, another Blue Valley mother, said she saw the writing on the wall years ago.

"I have been involved in advocating for our schools since 2011 because at that time, I was already seeing the cuts," Jarrell said.

Jarrell said schools only have so much power, and changes also need to come from lawmakers in Topeka.

"The Kansas Legislature, for many years now, [has] been hostile to public education," Jarrell said. That's the issue, and we need to address it.

Now that the effects are reaching students, parents are noticing the impact.

"We know that they have to have the money come from somewhere, but I do think that if we don't prioritize education as a state, then we're going to keep slipping," Blythe said.

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Earlier in March, Kansas lawmakers moved forward with a statewide ban on cell phones in schools. While the legislation has garnered support from parents and state leaders, local school districts are raising new concerns.

Blue Valley Schools Superintendent Gillian Chapman told me she is not against limiting distractions, but that a one-size-fits-all, statewide policy ignores what is already working locally.

"We have a policy in place that works really well; that does not cost us valuable resources," Chapman said.

Chapman is concerned that

the new law will require the district to use already limited funding and resources to create ways to collect and store devices for hundreds or even thousands of students. Because the mandate comes without government funding, the cost will fall directly on schools.

"This unfunded mandate will cost somewhere, really rough estimate that we've been able to calculate, somewhere between three and a half and $4 million at least," Chapman said. To put something in place that we do not need.

Chapman said she would prefer that lawmakers focus more on regulating social media to limit the negative effects of student phone use, rather than leaving districts with added budget pressure.

We discussed the cell phone ban while also talking more broadly about the funding problems that public schools are facing.

"If the legislature were truly serious about preserving the mental health of students, they'd be taking different action instead," Chapman said.

I asked the Shawnee Mission School District where they stand on the new policy.

"At this point, we are uncertain as to how we will comply with the law and at what cost to our finances and our instructional time," the district said. "We will begin having discussions with our principals and staff and seek guidance from the Kansas State Department of Education."

The legislation has received support from other state leaders and advocates who believe the ban will benefit classrooms.

"This really is designed to work better for our kids and really better for our teachers," Gov. Laura Kelly said.

"I think kids are going to be more attentive in class. I think you're going to see an increase of focus in class," Katie Longhauser, a phone-free schools advocate, said.

According to the new law, districts have until September to implement their new phone policies.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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Olathe taxpayers recently passed a $389 million school bond, but shortly after, Superintendent Brent Yeager sent a message to families saying it would not be enough.

Our enrollment in Olathe is changing, Yeager said.

The root of the problem is declining enrollment. We heard this throughout Olathes bond debate, and we are even starting to hear how this trend is affecting other districts in Johnson County.

Olathe parent Samantha Bashaw says it feels like school districts are scrambling to keep up.

"The core issue that they continue to state as to why they're consolidating the schools is declining enrollment," Bashaw said.

I wanted to find out why this is a problem. According to Mid-America Regional Council Economic Research Director Frank Lenk, the biggest factor appears to be that women are not having as many children.

"Kids under 5 are declining in Johnson County," Lenk said.

Lenk said lower birth rates, a lack of housing, and people leaving the area have compounded. Now, public schools are trying to overcome that problem.

"You see it first in schools. I mean, they're the canary in the coal mine," Lenk said.

So far, Olathe has been hit the hardest. From 2021 to 2025, district enrollment dropped by 1,379 students.

"We have budget pressure because of that, because the fewer kids that we have in our schools," Yeager said.

Yeager released a video message to Olathe families after voters passed the bond. He said the district's external footprint has outgrown its actual size.

The district's solution is to consolidate schools. That was already part of Bond 2026, but Yeager said to expect more.

"That task force will bring a recommendation to our board of education later this spring or in early summer, so we'll have a sense of how many buildings we're looking at to consolidate," Yeager said.

Parents like Bashaw want more transparency on these plans.

"It's crisis control," Bashaw said. "The logistics, the transparency of those are just not there, which leaves the community just questioning, like what's next."

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Olathe Public Schools is asking voters to approve a $389 million bond measure as the district faces years of declining enrollment a trend affecting school districts across Johnson County and the state.

The district says the bond would help maintain the community's existing investment in facilities funded by past bond measures. Plans include consolidating shrinking schools, rebuilding aging schools, and funding infrastructure and school safety improvements.

Declining enrollment plays a role in the bond. From 2021 to 2025, Olathe's enrollment dropped by 1,379 students. The Blue Valley and Shawnee Mission school districts are facing similar challenges, each seeing enrollment drops of around 200 students in the same period.

The trend extends beyond Johnson County. A study from the Brookings Institution projects there will be 2.4 million fewer students in public schools in the next decade compared to the last. Kansas is expected to see an enrollment drop of nearly 7%.

Olathe Deputy Superintendent Jim McMullen said the bond is part of a broader effort to right-size the district's footprint.

"It really goes in hand with a larger district initiative, which is really looking at our footprint and what do we need long term in terms of number of facilities to align with our future projections on enrollment," McMullen said.

Not everyone is on board. Taxpayer Larry Tucker raised concerns about whether the bond amount would be sufficient.

"389 million dollars will have to be paid by the property owners here in this school district. The question I have, primarily, is that going to be enough?" Tucker said.

Johnson County school districts are seeing declining enrollment due to two factors: lower birth rates and a lack of affordable housing. The Shawnee Mission School District told me they are now looking into how enrollment trends will affect the district's future.

Olathe voters casting ballots in the bond election should note that ballots must be received at a Johnson County Election Office drop box by noon Tuesday, March 3, to be counted.

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Kansas lawmakers are weighing a bill Tuesday that could expand tax credits for private school donors, potentially redirecting millions of dollars away from public schools.

House Bill 2468, also called the Education Freedom Tax Credit, would expand Kansas' tax credit scholarship program for private schools and, in turn, expand tax breaks for donors.

The bill passed the House last month by a vote of 7049.

"We wholeheartedly support this program, which will offer Kansas students opportunities to improve their learning and augment their normal education," Vincent Anch, of the Catholic Education Foundation, said in testimony to the House last month.

Opponents like Sen. Ethan Corson (D-District 7) warn the bill would mean losing money that would otherwise go to public schools.

Johnson County school leaders are worried about special education funding. Kansas has not met the 92% reimbursement for special education costs since 2011.

Corson says passing the bill would create a $61 million gap in Johnson County alone money that could be pulled directly from general education budgets in districts that serve a combined 95,000 students.

"Kansans across the state have been really clear with me that they want to see their public dollars remain in public schools, and I think this bill actually does the opposite, especially at a time when we're not fully funding our special education obligations," Corson said.

Johnson County superintendents addressed the Kansas Legislature about special education funding when the session began. They released a joint statement that read in part:

"Fully funding special education should not be a partisan issue. We encourage all Kansas residents to contact your legislators and ask them to support full special education funding at the level required by law."

Corson also warns the bill may not actually support the students it is intended to help. While the bill is designed to provide scholarships to students in need, the federal tax credit outlines a need-based scholarship income threshold of three times the county median. In Johnson County, that figure is $320,000.

"I think it significantly expands it beyond what I think most people would think is a reasonable definition of a lower-income student who might not otherwise be able to attend a private school," Corson said.

As of late January, 23 states have opted into the Education Freedom Tax Credit, including Missouri. The Kansas Senate is scheduled to take up the bill at 1:30 p.m. Tuesday.