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Gary's winter forecast: 3 to 4 'major winter storms' expected this season

Posted at 3:44 PM, Nov 26, 2019
and last updated 2019-12-03 18:03:40-05

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — There are many of us out there who love snow, and there are many who do not like snow at all. Which camp are you in?

If you are in the “love snow” camp, then you likely loved last winter, when 29 inches of snow fell in Kansas City. We had gone five years in a row without even 3 inches of snow in one storm. Then last winter produced three major snowfalls, many smaller ones and even a little ice.

How did we do last year on the winter forecast? We use the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC), my peer-reviewed cycling weather pattern hypothesis, to help guide us in these longer-range forecasts, and the LRC helps even in the shorter range, a day out, as well. 41 Action News has been the most accurate weather forecast over the past 20 years. Last winter, using the LRC, we predicted 26 to 27 inches of snow would fall. We also predicted a wet weather pattern, and it was the wettest 12-month stretch in our history. So, we hit it on the nose.

This year’s pattern is very different. I am not sure I have ever seen a pattern like this one, so this will be a tough forecast. The season started out with two early snowfalls in October and early November. The pattern is very active. We are forecasting a few stormy stretches, with one of them later in December and another in February.

We are forecasting three to four major winter storms that will impact the Kansas City metro area, and this will lead to near- to above-average precipitation. Expect near- to below-average temperatures as well. So, a stormy winter is ahead of us again. Using the LRC we are predicting 23 to 28 inches of snow to fall in the KC metro area this winter, which is well above the average of around 19 inches of snow.

Sleds, jackets and snow blowers might be on the Christmas list again this winter. We will be monitoring the weather and bringing you the most in-depth and accurate weather information every day.