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Survey: Small business owners show cautious optimism about economic health in 2026

Small business owners show cautious optimism about economic health
Karen Crnkovich
Dan Murray
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KSHB 41 reporter Grant Stephens covers downtown Kansas City, Missouri. He also focuses on stories of consumer interest. Share your story idea with Grant.

Small business owners are expressing cautious optimism about the year ahead, with new survey data revealing companies are increasingly investing in equipment and facilities at levels not seen since late 2023.

Small business owners show cautious optimism about economic health

The National Federation of Independent Business survey shows 68% of small business owners now rate their business health as "good" or "excellent." Perhaps more significantly, 60% made capital investments in the last six months — the highest level since November 2023.

For Karen Crnkovich, owner of DMC Service, a commercial heating, cooling and plumbing contractor in Kansas, the data aligns with what she is experiencing firsthand.

"I'm feeling cautiously optimistic," Crnkovich said. "We have had a really remarkably good start to the year. We're up about 40% over in revenues over same time last year."

Crnkovich's business offers a unique window into broader economic sentiment.

As she puts it, DMC Service consists of "fixers, not builders," but her company's performance often reflects how other businesses are feeling financially.

"People are more starting to think about replacing units rather than repairing, and that's always kind of our gauge," Crnkovich said.

Dan Murray, NFIB Kansas State Director, confirms the optimism is measurable, but it comes with important caveats.

"Of those 10 optimism index components, three increased and seven decreased," Murray said. "But we're still above the 52-year average of 98, we're at 99.3 on our optimism index, so it shows some strength."

However, challenges remain. Insurance costs are emerging as a growing concern, with the percentage of business owners citing it as their biggest problem reaching the highest level since 2018.

"In January, 13% reported cost (or) availability of insurance as their single most important problem," Murray said.

Despite these concerns, sales expectations are rising. More than one-sixth (16%) of business owners predict higher sales this quarter.

For Crnkovich, the broader implications of small business optimism extend beyond individual companies to entire communities.

"It's people in our community," Crnkovich said. "You know, we sponsor more softball teams and, you know, donate more to nonprofits, and we're really a part of the community and that's so vitally important. So, when small businesses start to feel optimistic, that's a good thing for everybody."

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