KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray is likely to go first overall, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be an Arizona Cardinal.
With less local intrigue now that the Kansas City Chiefs don’t have a first-round pick, Tod Palmer projects which AFC West rival gets its quarterback of the future — and which one misses out in his 2019 NFL (Mock) Draft:
2019 NFL DRAFT FIRST-ROUND PROJECTION
1. Oakland: QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Raiders coach Jon Gruden reportedly “loves” Murray and very well may need to swing this trade to get him. But if Arizona stays put, don’t be shocked if Gruden, who coached Drew Lock at the Senior Bowl, and Oakland’s “surprise” at No. 4 is picking the Lee’s Summit native and Mizzou grad.
2. San Francisco: DE Nick Bosa, Ohio State
He didn’t have monster production with the Buckeyes — 29 tackles for a loss, including 17 1/2 sacks, in 47 career college games — but Bosa is widely viewed as one of the safest picks in the draft and best edge rushers, which the Niners still need despite the Dee Ford trade.
3. New York Jets: DT Quinnen Williams, Alabama
Unable to find a partner to trade down with, the Jets simply select the best player available. Many believe Williams is the best prospect in the draft, so New York can’t be upset with this pick.
4. Arizona: DT Ed Oliver, Houston
Oliver has some rare physical gifts for a defensive linemen. After opting to stick with Josh Rosen rather than draft a quarterback in the top 10 in consecutive seasons, the Cardinals find a major building block for the defense.
5. Cincinnati: QB Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
Eight seasons, zero playoff wins — that’s the reality of Andy Dalton’s tenure as the Bengals’ starting quarterback. As his play has dipped in recent seasons and with the transformation of the NFL, it’s an ideal time for Cincy to start over at QB with the former Buckeye.
6. New York Giants: DE Josh Allen, Kentucky
The Giants need lots of help in lots of places, but Allen is a nice addition as the club rebuilds after trading away Olivier Vernon. Quarterback is a need — arguably the club’s biggest need — but Allen’s value is better here.
7. Jacksonville: TE T.J. Hockenson, Iowa
Florida offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor remains a strong possibility here, but Hockenson improves the Jaguars’ blocking and provides a weapon for new starting quarterback Nick Foles. It’s too early to grab a receiver in my opinion, but Hockenson could become a Zach Ertz-esque security blanket for Foles.
8. Detroit: DE Montez Sweat, Mississippi State
Sure, some teams are concerned about Sweat’s heart condition. Others may have a problem with his dismissal from Michigan State. But pairing the former Bulldog with free-agent acquisition Trey Flowers could go a long way toward helping Detroit compete in the NFC North — or gladly take Hockenson if the Jags pass.
9. Washington: QB Drew Lock, Missouri
There’s a chance Lock falls to No. 15 or beyond, but there’s also a chance Denver snags him sitting there at No. 10. Washington didn’t feel comfortable with Kirk Cousins as the franchise QB, Alex Smith’s future is in doubt and Case Keenum is a short-term “solution.”
10. Denver: LB Devin Bush, Michigan
With no quarterback worth selecting here, the Broncos will be content to go into 2019 with Joe Flacco as the heir apparent. It also avoids the saga of when he’d inevitably be replaced. Bush is a ferocious playmaker and will be a thorn in the Chiefs’ side for years.
11. Tampa Bay: LB Devin White, LSU
The Bucs may be tempted to stay put and snag a defensive lineman — since Williams, Oliver or Allen is likely to fall to No. 5. But trading back, collecting assets then still getting White? Man, that’s a huge win for a still-rebuilding squad.
12. Green Bay: OT Jawaan Taylor, Florida
The Packers end Taylor’s mini slide after the Jaguars passed on the former Gator at No. 7. Maybe quarterback Aaron Rodgers won’t take such a beating in 2019.
13. Carolina: DE Rashan Gary, Michigan
Gary fits the profile for the Panthers so well that I can’t help but ensure he lands in Carolina. The trade up is necessary to ensure the Bills don’t snag him, but the Dolphins are happy to take an extra third-round pick to move down a few spots.
14. Atlanta: DT Christian Wilkins, Clemson
Edge rusher may be a bigger need for the Falcons, but Christian Wilkins provides insurance in case the franchise winds up moving on from Grady Jarrett down the road.
15. Buffalo: DE Brian Burns, Florida State
The Bills invested a lot in the offense during free agency, including a mega deal for former Chiefs and Mizzou center Mitch Morse. Burns may not be ideally in size and physicality, but I’m confident Sean McDermott can find a way to use that elite speed.
16. Houston: OT Jonah Williams, Alabama
The Dolphins will wait until next year to get a quarterback — and probably will be picking No. 1 overall — so trading back as the Texans move up for a desperately needed tackle makes sense, because a run may be coming linemen.
17. New York Giants: OT Andre Dillard, Washington State
Offensive line has been a problem that has plagued the Giants for a seeming eternity. Dillard shoes up the pass protection immediately. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t get a little Cheshire-cat grin at the thought of mocking D.K. Metcalf here.
18. Minnesota: C Garrett Bradbury, North Carolina State
The Vikings need some serious upgrades along the offensive line and he’s the best available. Bradbury should anchor that line for a decade or more.
19. Tennessee: WR Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
It's time to see if Marcus Mariota is a franchise QB or a soon-to-be washed-out starter. To do that, he needs weapons — and Brown may be the best weapon available in the draft.
20. Pittsburgh: CB Byron Murphy, Washington
Arguably the best cornerback in the draft goes to a team desperate for help at the position, even after signing former Chiefs CB Steven Nelson last month.
21. Seattle: DE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
Two days after trading away Frank Clark, the Seahawks land a cheaper and younger replacement. Pete Carroll and company know what they’re doing.
22. Baltimore: WR D.K. Metcalf, Mississippi
The Ravens’ cupboard is barren at wide receiver and Metcalf provides a dynamic target for Lamar Jackson.
23. Miami: CB Greedy Williams, LSU
Mississippi State DT Jeffery Simmons — ACL injury, character baggage and all — will be tempting here for a team that’s still a year or two from competing. But Williams is too good for the Dolphins to pass and gives them a nice, young secondary.
24. Oakland: RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama
Fearing that the Eagles or Colts may snag Jacobs, the Raiders protect this pick in the trade that netted Kyler Murray.
25. Philadelphia: G Cody Ford, Oklahoma
Protecting Carson Wentz takes on added urgency given his injury history, especially with Nick Foles now off to Jacksonville.
26. Indianapolis: DT Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame
Dexter Lawrence could be tempting here, especially given the Colts’ struggles against the run, but Tillery is a more well-rounded player. Thus, he’s the pick.
27. Arizona: WR A.J. Brown, Mississippi
It may be tempting for the Cardinals to take Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry here, but Brown’s a better player and talent should trump geography.
28. Los Angeles Chargers: DT Jeffrey Simmons, Mississippi State
We’re getting into the range where Kansas State’s Dalton Risner may hear his name called, but there’s better value in a defensive tackle here. Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence almost certainly will have a more immediate impact, because of Simmons’ ACL injury during the pre-draft process, but Simmons ultimately may have the better career.
29. New York Giants: QB Daniel Jones, Duke
The Giants don’t need to reach in the end for a QB they like — ending up with an elite edge rusher, elite pass protector, and a developmental QB who ELi Manning may actually mentor. Armed with 12 picks, it’s easy enough to cough a few later in the draft (including No. 37 overall) to a Seahawks team that only has five picks, even after the Frank Clark trade.
30. Green Bay: TE Noah Fant, Iowa
Protection earlier in the round and now another weapon for Rodgers. That should help keep him happy.
31. Los Angeles Rams: G Chris Lindstrom, Boston College
Even with its Showtime-on-the-gridiron offense, competing in the NFC West against Seattle and two rebuilding teams with an influx of D-line talent requires some grit up front on offense. Lindstrom definitely has that.
32. New England: DT Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
With the top tight ends and receivers gone, the Patriots go with value and get great value in Lawrence. He’s a run-stuffer first with limited pass-rush ability, but the rich keep getting richer — and New England has five more picks in the top 101.