After Monday’s presidential debate with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump, a slew of scientific polls claimed Clinton the winner.
Yet, on the campaign trail, Trump declared victory by pointing to polling.
"Last night was very exciting, and nearly every single poll had us winning against Hillary Clinton, big league," said Trump at a Tuesday rally in Florida.
Trump also tweeted the polling results.
Such a great honor. Final debate polls are in - and the MOVEMENT wins!#AmericaFirst #MAGA #ImWithYouhttps://t.co/3KWOl2ibaW pic.twitter.com/sfCEE3I5pF
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 27, 2016
Each poll referenced was an online “push button” survey conducted by the respective outlets.
“Most professional pollsters will tell you that you can’t put much stock into those things,” said Travis Smith, a partner at Kansas City-based conservative political consulting firm Axiom Strategies. “It’s someone like you or I visiting a website, and choosing ourselves whether or not to participate, and that’s a good way to throw the statistical sample right out the window.”
Why aren’t push button/snap polls accurate?
Kansas City campaign strategist James Roberts with Dover Strategy Group said it comes down to how the polls are, or in this case, are not conducted.
“Important thing for voters to keep in mind is that scientific or credible polling requires some methodology that accounts for what the electorate is like, what the composition of the electorate is like,” said Roberts.
He explained that the debate snap polls don't go through the rigor of making sure that the respondents reflect everyone that watched the debate.
“ [The snap polls] could be wholly comprised of people who live in one state or people who support one candidate, or it could be 90 percent men and 10 percent women,” said Roberts.
Snap polls are effective in one regard: They get the electorate engaged.
“That’s not dissimilar from [asking], ‘Do you think the Royals will make the playoffs?’ That’s a great thing to ask and it’s a survey, but it’s not a scientific poll,” said Roberts.
Not all online polls are created equal
NBC News released a post-debate poll Wednesday that is both scientific and conducted online.
“There are credible, effective ways to survey online, but they require the same rigor that any type of scientific polling requires,” said Roberts.
Now is a sweet spot for accurate polling
Roberts believes polling to be most accurate when the electorate is informed.
“We see this around conventions and you see it around the debates,” said Roberts. “When scientific, well-conducted polls are done around the two periods, you’re getting a larger percentage of the electorate than usual that has more information than they typically do.”
Voters have more information around convention and debate periods because life gets in the way during the other points of a long campaign season, according to Roberts.
“You tune out. You have to get your kids back to school. You have a vacation to plan. You have the holidays to think about,” said Roberts.
The good polls
For informative insight into the status of an election, Smith suggested looking at aggregate polling of battleground states from companies like RealClearPolitics.
“I’d look at those key states to really give you a flavor of what’s going to happen,” said Smith. “I think there’s a good chance this entire race comes down to Pennsylvania. That could be the battleground state this cycle.”
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Brian Abel can be reached at brian.abel@kshb.com.
