KSHB 41 reporter Ryan Gamboa covers Miami County in Kansas and Cass County in Missouri. He also covers agricultural topics. Ryan met with Billy Waters about a month ago to discuss soybean trade markets and is continuing the coverage. Share your story idea with Ryan.
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Leaders of two of the world's biggest economies are meeting Wednesday night through early Thursday morning in South Korea. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hope to come to a trade agreement.
China, the world's biggest soybean buyer and formerly the number one buyer of American soybeans, made its first purchase of U.S. soybeans on Wednesday, first reported by Reuters.
It's not much compared to what the country used to buy from American farmers.
KSHB 41 News Reporter Ryan Gamboa met with Miami County farmer Billy Waters in early October, following China's $2 billion purchase of Argentine soybeans earlier this month.
"I think the Chinese market is done, gone," Waters told KSHB 41 on Wednesday night. "I mean they're investing millions of dollars in infrastructure there."
Waters is referring to Brazil — where Chinese investment is growing with a record 39 projects across multiple sectors, including agriculture.
In September, Reuters reporting on a study from the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC), a think tank, showed Chinese investment in Brazil doubled from 2023 into 2024.
This comes as President Trump imposed tariffs on both countries, pulling the two Brazil and China together.
"We’re going to have to look for more markets and hopefully take over Brazil’s other customers because they can’t supply everyone," Waters said.
The Kansas Grain and Feed Association, an organization representing 99% of commercially-licensed grain storage in the state, tells KSHB 41 the Brazilian market is becoming more competitive with substantial infrastructure investments.
"Brazil is a big player in South America," President and CEO Ron Seeeber said. "They’re selling a lot of different crops to China that would otherwise be the U.S.'s market. Unfortunately, China and the U.S. has had very poor trade relations in the last eight years, and that’s cause for China to switch their market and buy from our competitors."
Seeber also Brazil can have two growing seasons in one due to its climate while Kansas is limited to one growing season.
"They can produce twice as much where they don’t really have the infrastructure that the U.S. has to export," he said. "They’re getting better and better and that infrastructure is going in. So, it makes their market much more competitive than it has been in the past."
There is framework for a trade agreement for a Chinese-U.S. soybean deal, but Seeber says the details aren't clear.
The Kansas sorghum market to China has gone away almost completely.
"They use it for animal feed, different kinds of alcohol, it’s a great product," Seeber said. "We’re going to have piles and piles of grain on the ground across the state, specifically southwestern Kansas, with absolutely no market to export to."
Fingers are crossed a deal can be made, but Waters doesn't feel optimistic.
"I think a trade deal is going to be made, but that's only going to be a drop in a bucket to what they used to buy," Waters said. "China has already bought most of their crop for the year, so why would they buy a whole bunch more from us and have a surplus?"
Traders say China could take eight million tons of soybeans for its reserves between December and May. That would be worth about $4 billion.
Whether a trade agreement can be made hangs over Miami County Farmer Billy Waters's head as he plans for next season in his 50-50 corn and soybean crop rotation.
"Depending on what tomorrow says, I might change things up a little bit, if it looks ugly for soybeans, maybe I put in some more corn. Just have to see what comes as it goes," Waters said.
To make ends meet, like many agriculture producers, Waters is working on the side as a Realtor with Chris Guerrero Land Group and posting farm social media content on Instagram.
"My goal is that realty can pay my mortgage and day-to-day family bills and farming can pay the rest," Waters said. "Farming is not a guarantee. You never know what the market’s going to do every year. It’s ups and downs. You have to have other ways of income to offset those times."
In December 2024, KSHB 41 reported on Booth Creek Wagyu expanding its store front operations in Prairie Village. It's a "value-added" marketing venture many farmers are taking.
Including ventures in other states, KSHB 41's sister station in Montana has reported on a group that's selling its beef directly to consumers.
"Most farmers I know do have other ways of income," Waters said.
As uncertainty grows in trade deals with one of the world's largest economies, Seeber gives the Trump Administration credit for opening up new markets in Europe.
"They have been working out trade deals," Seeber said. "We just got done, I believe, with South Korea, England, with the European Union. There is a lot of trade out there they are working on and making significant progress that hasn’t been accomplished in the past."
For now, it's hurry up and wait for Billy Waters, hoping his livelihood can continue on for another season.
"I sold some of this year's crop today, some corn and some soybeans while there was a rally in the market," he said. "I have a feeling it’s going to go the other way. It's a lot of anticipation to see what tomorrow brings."
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