KSHB 41 reporter Olivia Acree covers portions of Johnson County, Kansas, including Olathe and Lenexa. Share your story idea with Olivia.
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Declining enrollment is putting pressure on school districts across Johnson County, costing them thousands of dollars for every student lost.
In the Shawnee Mission School District, enrollment dropped by about 250 students last year, resulting in an unexpected loss of about $4 million, according to Superintendent Dr. Mike Schumacher. Now, the district is trying to make up for the shortfall.
I’ve learned from the Mid America Regional Council that the biggest factors driving this trend overall are lower birth rates and a low stock of affordable housing.
"The biggest factor is it appears women aren't having as many kids," Frank Lenk said.
Lenk is the economic research director for the Mid America Regional Council.
"As long as the homes seem so out of reach of many people, then it feels like I'm not really achieving, you know, what I had expected. That leads to that gloomy feeling," Lenk said. "In order for birth rates to rebound is that homes have to become more affordable would be one, one piece of that puzzle.”
After previously looking at how these factors impacted the Blue Valley and Olathe school districts, I took my questions to Shawnee Mission. Behind the numbers, parents worry that declining enrollment could mean changes inside the classroom.
"It makes me so nervous about what's going to happen," Emily Meissen-Sebelius said.
Meissen-Sebelius is a Shawnee Mission parent facing the growing challenge of fewer students. Her biggest fears center around class sizes and teacher support.
"The schools are great at figuring out how to best our students with what we have, but it's just getting harder and harder," Meissen-Sebelius said. "I'm so worried we're going to lose that full time social worker, and that would be devastating for our building.”
Shawnee Mission School District Superintendent Dr. Mike Schumacher says that is a very real possibility. He noted the biggest enrollment shifts are happening at the elementary school level.
"While I see a need for 34 elementary counselors at $3 million, that's how much it would cost us, I can't make that recommendation," Schumacher said.
"Some of our buildings, we have some predicted enrollments of around 200 kids, and then some of those elementary schools almost approaching 700," Schumacher said.
Another cause impacting Shawnee Mission more than any other district I’ve looked at is a decrease in immigration.
"The other was immigration concerns," Schumacher said. "Where we saw those declines was kind of along the I-35 corridor. That's where we have our kind of lower SES buildings, some transient population, our Title schools.”
Lenk validated that claim, noting changes in international migration.
"International migration, and that has also stopped, or dramatically less than the last year or so," Lenk said.
Schumacher is weighing how to respond, which could include asking voters for help. He expects the district to see a steady decline over the next 10 years, but not one as dramatic as they saw this past year. Right now, all options are on the table.
"We intend to make a recommendation to our Board of Education in November of a resolution of a bond in March of 2027," Schumacher said.
If it comes to a bond issue, Meissen-Sebelius said she would support her district.
"Public schools are incredibly important to us," Meissen-Sebelius said.
However, she is looking for answers first.
"What's going to happen, and how much kind of how much notice will we have about these things?" Meissen-Sebelius said.
This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.
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