A new poll is giving insight into the millennial vote in 2016, and it’s not good news for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
According to the poll, Clinton leads Trump in likely minority millennial voters by a vast margin.
- African-American Millennials: 74% Clinton, 2% Trump
- Asian American Millennials: 71% Clinton,6% Trump
- Latino Millennials: 64% Clinton, 9% Trump
When it comes to the Caucasian millennial vote, Trump narrows the margin to a 41% to 31% Clinton over Trump advantage.
University of Missouri-Kansas City political professor Greg Vonnahme says the question is whether the millennial electorate will make it to the polls Nov. 8. If one particular candidate can energize the millennial electorate, they could build an advantage. He is seeing something unique this election cycle.
“For the first time in an election I can remember, young people have issues they’ve mobilized around, specifically unemployment, entry level jobs and college debt,” said Vonnahme. “It seems they’ve mobilized around some issues that are their own, that address specifically their needs.”
Vonnahme believes this phenomena is an advantage for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
“She has more directly courted that group of voters and staked out positions aligned with what their interest are,” said Vonnahme.
According to Pew Research Center data, millennials now match baby boomers as the largest generations of the electorate.
Vonnahme says that creates an interesting dynamic where “even voting at a lower relative rate gives them similar absolute numbers.” Translation -- less turnout can produce same results if millennial voting trends stay the same. Vonnahme suggest they may not.
“Clinton has somewhat struggled to appeal to young voters [in comparison to Obama],” said Vonnahme.
In 2012, President Obama defeated Mitt Romney in the millennial vote 67% to 30% according to a Center for Youth study that determined Romney would have won the presidency if millennial voters were split 50/50.
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Brian Abel can be reached at brian.abel@kshb.com.
