While climate change has significant impacts on farming, energy and other sectors, it is also having a major effect on marathons.
Runners tend to perform their best when temperatures are cool and crisp, which is why many major marathons are held in early spring or late fall. For example, the New York City Marathon will be staged this weekend. A new study highlights how warming temperatures are affecting runners.
Many marathons in the United States already struggle to provide ideal temperatures for runners. Elite athletes participating in the New York City Marathon currently have only a 27% to 29% chance of competing in ideal conditions. But Climate Central projects that the odds could drop by as much as 5 percentage points by 2045.
This trend was visible in 2023, when the Twin Cities Marathon, one of the nation’s largest road races, was abruptly canceled just hours before its scheduled start time. That day marked the first time Minneapolis reached 90 degrees in October.
RELATED STORY | Historic victory: Matthew Richtman is first American man to claim LA Marathon title in 3 decades
Typically, morning temperatures in Minneapolis start in the 40s in early October, with highs climbing into the 60s.
Those conditions are much closer to what is considered ideal for both recreational and elite marathoners. According to Climate Central, elite men tend to run their fastest marathon times when temperatures are between 30 and 48 degrees. For elite women, the range is 41 to 59 degrees.
For recreational runners, the optimal range is 37 to 51 degrees.
Climate Central’s study found that the odds of marathoners competing in optimal conditions are expected to drop between now and 2045.
While running in warmer conditions isn’t ideal, heat does more than slow runners down — it can also create dangerous race conditions.
“Heat and high humidity limit the body’s ability to cool itself through sweating — putting runners who train and compete in these conditions at risk of heat-related illness. This includes heat exhaustion, heat stroke and muscle damage due to overexertion,” Climate Central said.
The report also noted that higher levels of pollution from burning fossil fuels can hamper runners.
“During long races, runners’ breathing increases to provide adequate oxygen. These higher breathing rates can greatly increase the amount of particulate matter marathon runners inhale during a race. This has negative impacts on marathon performance and on health,” the report read.
Those running the New York City Marathon might luck out this weekend. The National Weather Service is forecasting the race to begin with temperatures in the mid-40s, warming into the mid-50s as the last runners finish that afternoon.
