Weather Blog: 72 degrees, Arctic front, maybe some snow

Forecast Map This Afternoon
Posted at 6:46 AM, Feb 21, 2022
and last updated 2022-02-21 08:41:17-05

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,

A dramatic weather change is in store for us in the next 24 hours. Temperatures will be dropping from a high of 72 degrees today to temperatures in the 20s tomorrow. And, there may be some snow as another storm system threatens our area later this week.

Let's begin with the big snowmelt that happened yesterday. These next two satellite pictures show the snow and then the snowmelt well. In this first picture, you can see where the snowstorm produced as it was 100% sunny yesterday from Kansas to Chicago. The white area shows the snow at 9:10 a.m.:

Snow at 9:10 AM Sunday

And, then this second picture is from just over five hours later showing the snow almost gone in our area.

Snow at 2:30 PM Sunday

Snowfall for the season is fascinating; take a look:

Snowfall totals this season

Notice Pierre, South Dakota, and Lincoln, Nebraska. 1.4 inches at Pierre and only 3.7 inches at Lincoln. This low snow area has extended southeast into areas just northwest of Kansas City. Kansas City has now had 14.6 inches, which is right about average for this time of the year. We average 18.6 inches for the entire season, which ends in April. Last year it did snow 3 inches as late as April 17, so we have another couple of months left of our snow season.

There will be some snow in the plains this week. Let's talk about today's warm-up first:

Forecast Map This Afternoon

We are forecasting a high temperature reaching the lower 70s today. The last 70-degree day may surprise you. It was 74 degrees on Christmas Eve, so not that long ago; 59-days ago.

Unfortunately, a very strong cold front will blast through dropping our temperatures into the 20s on Tuesday through the end of the week, and there is a chance of some snow Thursday.

Tuesday Morning Forecast

It will be a very cold week and there is a storm approaching our area. It looks similar to the last one that produced 4 to 12 inches of snow near Kansas City. But, there is a significant difference in most of the models. This one seems to be stretching its upper-level energy out as it approaches us Thursday.

Upper level flow Thursday morning

There is a trough aloft approaching us Thursday morning. This is the GFS model — or American model — showing a positively tilted trough approaching us Thursday morning. This model has the vorticity stretched out along that area from the base of the trough extending northeast to northwest Iowa. It has just barely enough strength to produce 1 to 2 inches of snow near Kansas City. If this is a bit less stretched out, then much higher snowfall amounts are possible, and I have seen one solution do just that. But, most models have it even more stretched out, and the energy, the vorticity, stretches even more along that line. In these other solutions, there is not even one snowflake in Kansas City. The European model has this no snow scenario.

We will see how the models come in today. We will likely see a trend and then update our forecast later today and tonight.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny, breezy, and very nice. It's time for a good walk with my dogs, how about you? High: 72 degrees
  • Tonight: Increasing clouds with a slight chance of brief showers moving by early Tuesday morning before sunrise. Temperatures begin falling by 9 p.m. as the wind shifts to the northwest at 15 to 30 miles per hour. Low: 32 degrees northwest to 42 degrees southeast.
  • Tuesday: Temperatures continue to fall into the 20s. It will be partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain developing a way to the southeast and zipping into eastern Missouri.
  • Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Low: 6 degrees, High: 24 degrees
  • Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. High: 23 degrees

Thank you for sharing this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog.