Good Friday bloggers,
We are tracking a rainy weekend, but before the weekend we are having a spectacular sunrise. The sunrise is being caused by cirrus clouds. These are usually the leading edge of a storm system which is why the saying "red sky in the morning, sailors take warning" came to be.
It was so clear before sunrise that we were able to see not only the moon, but Saturn.
We will have a very tough time seeing the moon, Saturn and the sun this weekend as clouds and rain will be prominent.
The set up this weekend will feature a stalled front in the southern Plains as a series of disturbances track in from the northwest, then west, the southwest. The front will separate highs 90°-100° south to 55°-65° north.
Since the front is rather far south, it takes our area out of the severe weather threats. We may see a few heavy thunderstorms, especially Sunday and Memorial day. They would bring very heavy rain and some hail.
This set up also keeps our area just north of the excessive rainfall. There is a Flood Watch from Clinton and Sedalia, MO and points south. This does include the Ozarks. If you are headed to the Ozarks for the weekend, keep this in mind.
6" of flowing water can float an SUV. "Turn Around Don't Drown."
Rainfall this weekend in the Flood Watch area will range from 2"-4" on the low end to 7"-10" on the high end.
Our area will see .50" on the low end to 1"-2" on the high end. The heaviest will be south. This zone can still shift north by 50 miles, but most likely will not shift much farther south.
The rain set up of heavy south and lighter north has been going on all Spring. Take a look at these radar estimated rainfall totals since April 7th. Amounts have ranged from 2"-3" in northwest Missouri to around 10" in Clinton/Sedalia, MO. These are radar estimated rainfall totals, so your rain gauge may read different.
When we look at the region, there is a zone around 15" of rain from north Texas to eastern Missouri. Average rainfall in our area, south to north Texas during this period is around 4"-5".
There has been just enough rain in northwest Missouri to decrease a level 1 of 4 drought that popped up during the last 2 weeks.
The latest drought monitor shows tiny areas of a moderate drought in northeast and northwest Missouri. These areas were bigger on the May 13th Drought monitor. The yellow is the abnormally dry category, which is one rung below a minimal drought. So,most of Missouri and eastern Kansas are not in drought conditions.
May is on average the wettest month of the year and the Memorial Day weekend is on average the wettest weekend of the year. So, it is very hard to keep it dry all 3 days. 2025 will see rain all 3 Memorial Day weekend days, but it will not rain every hour.
It looks like we have a decent chance to have dry hours Saturday between 9 AM and 5 PM. Today we may see some sprinkles and a few light rain showers around noon. Then, the main scattered showers will arrive after 5-7 PM.
Have a great and meaningful Memorial Day weekend.
Stay healthy
