Good Thursday bloggers,
Drought conditions have crept back into our area. Northwest Missouri is the location that is now in a low end, level 1 of 4 drought. It is also known as a moderate drought.
This has occurred because many locations are 4"-6" below average rainfall for 2025. 2" of the deficit have occurred in the first 2 weeks of May. May is on average, the wettest month of the year. We average around 2.70" of rain in the first half of May.
Take a look at the radar estimated rainfall totals (your rain gauge may read different) for May 1-14. 0.05" around Maryville, MO is 2% of average. The locations that have seen the most rain this month, such as locations around Clinton, MO are just over 50% of average. Now, locations to the southeast of KC had 6"-10" of rain in April. So, they are in good shape.
In the KC area amounts are mostly under .50".
Our next chance of rain and thunderstorms is between Sunday and Tuesday. Now, May is not only the wettest month on average, but it is the peak of severe weather season. So, we will have to watch these rounds of thunderstorms for severe weather.
The first best chance of thunderstorms is Sunday night. If these are severe, hail would be the main threat. So, these could help the dry conditions for sure.
New data suggests the storm may be in a reorganizing phase on Monday. This would reduce our rain chances Monday and push the severe weather threat to southern Missouri, Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma.
Then, Tuesday the storm reorganizes to our south. This would push the severe threat well south, putting our area in a colder rain with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. The data on Wednesday was showing the surface low in eastern Nebraska, which would put us in the severe threat.
This solution puts the severe threat in the Tennessee valley to southeast Missouri.
Bottom line: As usual we will have to follow the trend on the data into the weekend.
So, how much rain is possible?
Right now it looks like most locations could see 1"-2" of rain. This would be average for a 1 week period in May. If your yard or farm gets missed, there will be several chances of rain and thunderstorms between May 23 and June 15.
We need the rain, but there are a lot of graduations this weekend and the Cardinals are in town for the I-70 series. So, we don't want rain this weekend. Right now it looks mostly dry until Sunday night, which means good weather for outdoor activities.
We will have to watch to see if any thunderstorms move through Sunday morning. If they do, they should be out of here by the first pitch of game 3 of the I-70 series.
Have a great rest of your week and weekend.
Stay healthy
