Good Sunday, bloggers,
Our weather pattern is being dominated by an upper-level high, anticyclone, heat dome, heat wave-creating machine building in the southeast U.S.
This upper-level high will weaken just enough to allow a front to sag into northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas on Monday.
MONDAY:
A cold front will make it to northwest Missouri before stalling. Thunderstorms will form on this front during the afternoon before highs reach 90°-95° in all locations.
MONDAY MORNING:
The day will start as the last few have, clear, breezy, very warm and humid. Lows will be 75°-80°.
MONDAY (NOON-5 PM):
You can see the widespread thunderstorms from southwest Kansas to Iowa, clipping northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
MONDAY (5-8 PM):
This is when the door opens for heavy rain and thunderstorms across much of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
Keep in mind, these locations have been rather dry during the spring. This would be beneficial.
There is a level 1/2 of 5 severe risk for these thunderstorms. Strong winds and some hail would be the main threats.
MONDAY NIGHT:
The thunderstorms will weaken and possibly drift through KC as showers. There is a small chance we see more than showers as the leftovers move through.
The next round of thunderstorms will form farther north and track farther north as the front drifts back north.
TUESDAY:
The front drifts north as we start to see scattered thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Those will likely stay south of our area.
Tuesday will be dry at all locations with highs a bit cooler around 90°. This is due to more clouds.
RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS:
The main rain for the next 5-7 days occurs Monday and Tuesday. We may start to see rain chances increase for all locations in about 5-7 days, but confidence is not high.
You can see the KC area is between the heavy rain from organized thunderstorms to the north and rain from scattered thunderstorms to the south.
If you want to keep the yard green, you need 1"-1.50" per week. A sprinkler will be needed in most locations.
That is why we have a sprinkler warning in effect. A sprinkler watch is in effect for northwest Missouri in case the rain Monday night falls through.
Southern and southeast Kansas are waterlogged. They may need sprinklers at the end of the week, but this is when thunderstorm chances increase.
On the wide view, you can see northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas are on the southern edge of the main rain this week.
WEATHER SUMMARY:
Have a great week ahead.
Stay healthy.
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