Weather Blog - 100% Chance Of Rain Again & The LRC

Upper Level Flow Saturday
Posted at 7:00 AM, May 20, 2021
and last updated 2021-05-20 08:42:29-04

Good morning bloggers,

Today is already our sixth day in a row with measurable rain, and more is on the way.

Rain Day Streak:

  • May 15: .05"
  • May 16: 1.18"
  • May 17: 0.27"
  • May 18: 0.01"
  • May 19: 0.41"
  • May 20: 0.13" so far

Rain is heading our way as I am writing this blog. Snow is falling in Montana. What is going on? The LRC! This pattern set up in October and it continues right on schedule today. Take a look as I share with you how New Year's Day is directly related to a couple days ago, and everything is right on schedule:

I just shared how the Polar Vortex way up in northern Canada, near the North Pole, is in the EXACT same spot on May 17, 2021, and January 1, 2021, or 137 days apart, right no schedule. We predicted this stormy wet week in Kansas City months ago, and it is here.

So, as rain is spreading in this morning, expect anywhere from around 1/4" on the low side to 2" of rain possible today in a few spots. At least we don't have the snow, right? Take a look:

Snow In Montana Today

A conveyor belt of moisture extends from Cuba, out into the Gulf of Mexico, and then right across Kansas City. Disturbances in the flow are producing our areas of rain. Rain is developing now, and it will increase during the morning hours. A few heavy downpours are possible, but no severe weather. Our severe weather risks are more likely near the end of the month. More on that chance soon.

There is a level 1 of 5 risk of severe weather today as you can see here:

Severe Weather Risk Today

If the sun comes out just a bit today, it may become more unstable and lead to a few stronger thunderstorms. We will monitor this closely for this possibility. The better chance of severe is way up into the western high plains.

An upper ridge will be building our way, that H you see on this map below. But, just as it approaches us from the east, it will get wiped away and pushed to the southeast as the jet stream drops south again. By around a week from now there is a chance the flow may become a bit more favorable for severe weather in our area, so we will be monitoring these changes closely. It is only one month until summer, and less than a month before tornado season ends in our area. It has been very quiet! Record levels of quiet!

Upper Level Flow Saturday

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: A 100% chance of rain with a few heavy downpours possible. There is a chance of a thunderstorm, but no severe weather is expected. High: 75°
  • Tonight: A nearly 100% chance of more rain. Total rainfall amounts of 1/4" to 2" likely. Low: 66°
  • Friday: Mostly Cloudy with a few breaks of sunshine. There is still a good chance of a few more rain showers. High: 80°
  • Saturday - Sunday: South winds 10-15 mph, and partly cloudy. Yes, enough sunshine will come out to warm us up into the lower or middle 80s. The chance of rain is 20%. A few thunderstorms are possible, but most of the weekend will be nice. High humidity is likely!

Our Joplin, 10 years later, special is on Friday night at 6:30 PM. And, our School Day At The K special is on Saturday night at 6:30 PM!!!!! DVR it and share it with the kids!

Saturday Special

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary Weather Blog! Have a Great Day!