Good morning bloggers,
A fascinating weather pattern is setting up right now, and it includes the remnants of a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall yesterday just south of New Orleans, and now the remnants of this system are heading north across Arkansas into Missouri. While this is going on, a strong June storm system is developing over the plains, and this is the signature storm of this year's LRC. This part of the cycling pattern has produce a tropical storm in LRC Cycle 1, and significant episodes of severe weather in all four previous LRC cycles. In this fifth LRC cycle it is again producing a tropical storm, and it is producing some severe weather set ups.
Tuesday, June 9, 2020 Surface Set-Up
Take a look at this surface map. The remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal will be spinning north across Missouri on Tuesday. How far west into the Kansas City region will it reach is a tough forecast problem. Some spots may experience 7 or 8 inches of rain along the path of this system, while Kansas City may stay dry. At the same time, a strong storm is developing over the western plains.
As the remnants of the tropical storm lift north, a strong cold front will be developing over Kansas and Oklahoma and this will swing across the plains. The pressure gradient is forecast to become quite strong and northwest to west winds gusting to 50 or 60 mph will likely develop just west of the surface low track.
This storm is directly related to the part of the pattern that produced the most significant severe weather outbreaks of the season, including the Easter weekend storm. Here are the risks for the next two days in this June version:
We will be monitoring these set ups closely. The models have varying solutions and I would like to see how the models come in today.
Kansas City Weather Timeline:
- Today: Mostly sunny with a few high clouds. Wind: SE 10-20 mph. High: 90°
- Tonight: Increasing clouds with a 40% chance of rain just east of the KS/MO state line and a 0% chance of rain 20 miles west of the state line, which means KC is on the western edge of this tropical system. If it wobbles just a bit to the west, then we could have rain showers in the city, but the bulk of rain will still be well off to the east. The chance of rain increases to 70% around 40 miles east of KC and 100% chance with very heavy rain around 90 miles east of KC. Low: 72°
- Tuesday: Periods of clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The chance of rain is 40% during the day, increasing to 90% Tuesday night with the wind increasing from the west and northwest. The wind may go to a complete calm, then increase to 50 mph overnight. High: 89°
- Wednesday: Windy and much cooler by sunrise. There is a chance of lingering showers in the morning with clouds streaming overhead. Northwest to west winds at 30-40 mph will decrease to 10-25 mph during the afternoon. High: 74°
You can see the high clouds from the remnants of Cristobal, in the form of high cirrus clouds with Sunny & Rainbow:
Rainbow and Sunny The Weather Dog love to pose for the weather pictures!
Thank you for spending a few minutes sharing in this weather experience. Have a great day.