Happy hump day blog readers,
We're tracking the first meteor shower of 2024 tonight and it could be bright at times. The Quadrantids is known for bright fireballs, but it also has a very short peak window of activity.
We will then track hydrometeors falling from the sky by Friday with a big storm lining up to impact the Great Plains into early next week. This will be the first big coast-to-coast storm of 2024.
Meteors Tonight
Tonight's meteor shower is called the Quadrantids, as the meteors appear to fall through a quadrant of constellations in the sky. That quadrant to look for is where the Big Dipper, Little Dipper, Draco and Bootes are. It will be chilly tonight with overnight lows falling into the mid 20s but skies should be mostly clear. The only curve ball is moonlight is sitting at roughly 50%, so not awful, but not great. As always, meteor showers are best viewed away from city lights.
When it comes to astronomical sights this month the biggest focus will be the Quadrantids Wed. night (this meteor shower is known for producing bright fireballs). Mercury at elongation is a fancy term for where it is in its orbit and this set up makes for great viewing Jan. 12! pic.twitter.com/WqMkwNI73h
— ☀️ Cassie Wilson (@CassieKSHB) January 2, 2024
Hydrometeors (aka rain) Friday
Friday we start to transition into a more active pattern that looks to hold for much of January. We are tracking a storm to arrive Friday into Friday night and then another one Monday into Tuesday.
But our Friday's storm itself isn't a big one, it is arriving moisture and cold air limited. The main storm track will be to our south and while we look to tap into the northern edge of its rain shield expect Friday to be more of a gray, cold and drizzly kind of day.
This system looks to bring light rain and maybe a few snowflakes with it. Rain totals won't be all that impressive and snow accumulations will be very limited. Rain could linger a bit into Saturday but again we are talking on and off light showers and more of a drizzly cold gray day both Friday and into much of Saturday. Rain totals are staying around one-tenth of an inch and the snow projection is basically trace if anything.
Frozen hydrometeors (aka snow) next week
So you say you want snow? Well the Great Plains will get some snow next week, just where will the bullseye line up... that is still to be determined. But a solid snowstorm is eyeing the center of the country, so get ready, and for us the main impact day looks to be Monday night into Tuesday.
But let's talk about snow predictions and where the caveats are with a system this far out. Models need data to spin up their forecasts and right now this system is sitting in the Pacific. This system is actually called an Atmospheric River (AR) and it's moisture field extends all the way back to Hawaii, some like to call AR's 'Pineapple Expressways" for this reason. But there are limitations to modeling systems over the ocean vs. over land.
When systems move over land we can ingest real time weather data thanks to a network across the United States. This live data is coupled with satellite derived information, advanced physics and mathematics all work together to give models more accuracy. But through the Pacific Ocean there is no live data network, we lose that, we only have satellite derived information. Think of it this way... it's like making bread ... but when we are making bread over the ocean we have to use gluten free flour. Will it still be bread... yes... but will is rise, taste, and hold together the same way as normal bread... nope. So while models are giving us an idea of what next Tuesdays storm could be it's not a fully formed glutenous slice of bread. This is why snow predictions for a pin point location like Kansas City are ALL OVER THE PLACE right now. Some model runs show feet of snow others a few inches, check it out.
We really need this system to get over land before we can get a better handle on how much snow to expect but it certainly does have a signature worth watching. Forecasting on the west coast for a decade I got very familiar with tracking AR events, and there are some features to watch for and forecast ingredients to keep an eye on. One of those things is what meteorologists call a "baroclinic leaf."
My [awesomely] hand-drawn leaf above indicates an area where the moisture field is thickening in the jet and this gives us an idea of where the low pressure core will develop and be centered. So yes, as I write this during my lunch on Wednesday the low pressure center of this system hasn't even formed yet. The leaf shape of cloud cover will eventually turn into a comma shape structure that we all know of as a mid latitude cyclone. So yes, it has begun to form, but it's still a baby. This system will move onto the west coast sometime Saturday and right now it does look like the core of the low will have a solid northerly trajectory moving into Canada. This AR will then develop a long cold front that will bring rain and snow to the Sierra Mountains Saturday into Sunday. Next up will be the Rockies by Monday and Kansas City by Monday night into Tuesday (timeline subject to change).
So... Tuesday snow then?
So, while this system will leave a solid snow footprint across the country, especially here in the Midwest, we aren't sure where the bullseye will be quite yet. So ignore any crazy snow maps you see! This weekend, as it moves onto land, we will feed more data into the models and start to see a more clear picture. So what can I tell you, right now my confidence is moderate to high we will see snow out of this in KC, but how much... that is a different story my confidence is low but is sitting in the 2-4" range currently. But you know we will be watching every model run and keep you up to date with every twist and turn, so stay tuned!!!!
