Weather Blog | Monitoring our next severe weather chance

SPC Outlook Monday April 1.png
Posted at 9:59 AM, Mar 28, 2024

Good morning weather blog readers,

We are looking at much warmer weather for the rest of this week and into the weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s.

It should be great for Opening Day at The K with sunshine and temperatures in the 60s.


Inevitably as we go through Spring, temperatures start to get warmer, and we get more frequent chances of strong to severe thunderstorms.

Our last severe weather day was Wednesday, March 13, when a super cell storm dropped huge hail through the city.

I'm sure many of you wish you could forget that day with the costly roof and car damage that was done.

Our next round of severe storms may come through on Monday, April 1, in the afternoon and evening.

Historically, April is the second-highest month for tornadoes in Missouri and the third-highest in Kansas so it should come as no surprise there is a tornado threat with these storms.

Any storms that can form in the afternoon and early evening (when the sun is up) and remain discrete or super-cells will have the chance to produce all types of severe weather.

SPC Outlook Monday April 1.png

The Storm Prediction Center(SPC) has put us in a level two of five threat for severe storms.

After sunset and into Monday evening and night, wherever the storms end up forming, they may congeal together, move east, and turn into a line of storms.

When this happens, storms become mainly damaging wind gusts threat with hail and embedded brief tornadoes possible.

To get a better idea of what may happen in the future, forecasters can use a tool called "analogs."

The tool takes previous severe weather events and their atmospheric setup to help give us hints about where the storms may end up.

One commonly used tool from Saint Louis University has Kansas City in the severe threat zone, looking similar to the SPC, but has the favored area for tornadoes south of Kansas City (second image).

CIPS All severe.jpg
CIPS Tornado.jpg

While that southern area might be favored, tornado and large hail producing storms can form close to the area of low pressure (green area) which could be nearby the way it appears now.

Low Pressure Center.jpg

So please keep an eye on the forecast as we go into Monday!