Good Friday bloggers,
I have been hearing a phrase more and more over the last 2 days. I have heard it at the dentist office, on social media and from my son, "please make the rain stop." I am just the messenger and wish I could help and I understand the feeling. We have seen 6 days of rain in a row, today being 7. It has not just rained, but it has been rather cloudy and people are getting a bit frustrated with the weather. Remember, we are just the messenger and I can relay information that there is an end in sight.
It has not just rained lightly the last 7 days as you can see in these radar estimated rainfall totals over the last 7 days. Your rain gauge may read different from what we are showing as these are computer estimates. But, this gives you an idea on how heavy and extensive the rain has been.
Our area has seen 1" to 6" of rain with the heaviest along I-35 from KC and points southwest.
Locations north of highway 36 have seen .50" to 1.75" of rain which is quite a bit less. This has been happening all season and they needed rain up there and could use more. It is better than nothing. There is an 8" bullseye near Emporia, KS!
The heavy rain amounts extend all the way west to Colorado on I-70. Look at the 7.8" near the KS/CO border. That is a lot for any area in 7 days, let alone in western Kansas.
When you expand out, look how extensive the rain has been. It extends north to Minnesota and south to the Gulf of Mexico. Houston, TX to New Orleans, LA has seen 10" to 20" of rain!
What is going on? We have seen a summer-like upper level high, anticyclone which is the opposite of a storm form over the eastern USA. A deep tropical flow has set up on the western edge of the upper level high and it flows from the Gulf of Mexico to Minnesota. In this flow you have copious amounts of moisture with countless rain-making disturbances tracking south to north in a zone.
The "opposite of a storm", the upper level high is going to drift west, shifting the rain zone west. This will help to get us out of the daily rain pattern. But, when will this occur?
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TODAY:
Well, not today or Saturday as the upper level high will be sitting in the same place today before it starts its trek west this weekend. The upper level high is trapped in between a big upper level low in the western Atlantic ocean and western USA. This block breaks down this weekend.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY:
The high will near Missouri Saturday night and this should be close enough to shift the rain west. It will not drift much farther west as it will be flattening and sinking south next week. This will put us in more thunderstorm chances from west to east. But, there should be more sun in between rain and thunderstorm periods next week. We will talk about this in the coming days.
We will still be in the flow with weaker disturbances. So, today will be mostly cloudy again with highs in the 70s. We will have periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms, lower coverage than the last several days, but still some brief very heavy downpours.
This is going to be an interesting weather day. There is a trend towards a bigger disturbance rotating around the upper level high as it moves west. It appears we could see a widespread area of heavy rain and thunderstorms track north-northwest across our area Saturday, especially during the morning. This rain could be very heavy and mostly on the Kansas side. Temperatures will range from the 60s where it is raining pretty hard to 80s in the sunshine. It looks like we will be more in the rain. If the rain is more centered on the state line, we may stay in the 60s all day. But, it looks like we should reach at least the low to mid 70s as the rain moves away.
Hey! Look at this! The rain and clouds have shifted far enough west where we will see more sunshine with highs 80-85. We can't rule out a brief shower or thunderstorm, but we will finally be exiting the tropical flow.
This whole pattern breaks down and Monday looks dry and warm, but a cold front arrives Monday night and Tuesday increasing the chance of rain and thunderstorms again. We will have more on this in the coming days.
RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY-SUNDAY:
It looks like we will see a new .50"-2" with a few locations seeing 2"-3". Most of this rain looks to occur Saturday.
So, when will the rain stop? Hopefully, Sunday and Monday.
Remember to check out our "Day at the K" special which airs Saturday night at 6:30 PM on 41 Action News. We had a great time putting this together. We enjoy having fun and teaching weather at the same time.
Have a great weekend and stay healthy.