Weather Blog: To Thunderstorm or not to Thunderstorm

Posted at 9:13 AM, May 02, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-02 10:13:35-04

Good Saturday bloggers,

As usual we do not have an easy forecast around here as we are tracking the chance of thunderstorms later tonight. We did have a beautiful start to the weekend with a cloudless sunrise. You can see the sun shining on the north side of the buildings as the sun rises farther and farther north each day as we get closer to the summer solstice.

Now, will we get any thunderstorms tonight? Let's go through the forecast.

SATURDAY: A front will be in the area and after 2-3 PM it will become a slow moving cold front. In our area highs will be in the 70s north of the front to 80s south of the front. The humidity will be increasing south of the front as well. The KC metropolitan area will likely see highs 80-85 before the front slips south. Also, look at the temperature contrast across the Plains. 106 at Altus, OK to 53 in North Platte, NE. When you see a set up like this in early May, severe weather comes to mind. However, we have a limiting factor. There is a layer of warm air aloft, a "cap", that is preventing thunderstorms from forming during peak heating.

The clouds will thicken up this afternoon and evening and there may be a few sprinkles or a shower after 3-5 PM.

SATURDAY NIGHT (MIDNIGHT): We will have another chance of showers and thunderstorms later tonight, north of the front. A disturbance will emerge out of the Rockies this evening increasing rain and thunderstorms across western Nebraska and western Kansas. During the evening we will be mostly cloudy with temperatures drifting to the 60s. There may be a few showers or small thunderstorms.

SUNDAY MORNING: The disturbance from the Rockies will be racing by here early in the morning. It will likely have a small area of rain and thunderstorms associated with it. If you get underneath one of the thunderstorms you will have a brief very heavy downpour and possibly small hail and gusty winds. The severe threat is low due to the fact it is occurring later at night and north of the front. If this does become severe, a thunderstorm could produce quarter sized hail. This data has the main area tracking across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. This has a chance to track closer to I-70 and also has a chance to be more disorganized. We have solutions all over the place. If you miss the thunderstorm you still may see some drizzle or light showers with all seeing lows 55-60.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Regardless of whether your yard or farm receives rain, it will be a near perfect Sunday afternoon. It will be mostly sunny with a light east-northeast breeze at 5-15 mph and highs 70-75.

MONDAY: There is another system to track, but it will bring just scattered showers and thunderstorms. This looks like a cooler day with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s. So, if you need rain on your yard or farm there are no guarantees these systems will bring you the free water. Some locations the next 3 days will see .25"-1", others not a drop.

Have a great weekend and stay healthy.