Weather Blog - Subtropical Storm Nicole, a blizzard, & victory Monday in Kansas City

Surface Weather Map Valid 6 AM Friday
Posted at 7:25 AM, Nov 07, 2022
and last updated 2022-11-07 09:40:12-05

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,

We are tracking a developing subtropical storm and a major winter storm this week. Kansas City will not be significantly impacted by either one, but some snow is showing up as a possibility next week.

Let's begin by discussing last night's huge victory over the Tennessee Titans 20-17 in overtime. They struggled, needed a few breaks, and in the end Patrick Mahomes came through with the victory and they are now tied with the Bills for the best record in the AFC, as Buffalo lost yesterday (though the Bills have the tiebreaker). The atmosphere was great and the weather was off the charts nice for November. Next weekend's game is also at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium and it looks like it will be a bit colder.

Subtropical Storm Nicole:

Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed north of the Bahamas as you can see below. Subtropical cyclones typically are associated with upper-level lows and have colder temperatures aloft, whereas tropical cyclones are completely warm-core and upper-level high-pressure systems overhead help facilitate their intensification. We still have to monitor this closely for any potential tropical storm development. Either way, it will produce some wind and a lot of rain with flooding being the main threat.

Nicole is slowly organizing and may strengthen a bit as it approaches Florida. As you can see below, the National Hurricane Center is predicting Nicole to remain a tropical storm as it targets Florida.

Surface Forecast Valid 6 PM Tuesday

While Nicole is tracking towards Florida a strong winter storm will hit California in the next two days. And, then it will spin into a major winter storm north of KC: more on this system in just a second.

Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast

Tropical Storm Nicole is forecast to track into south Florida north of Miami and then track over the areas that were devastated by Major Hurricane Disaster Ian. This one will be much weaker and flooding will be one of the main threats.

Important LRC note: According to the LRC, hurricane season 2023 is actually having its seeds planted now. This tropical storm is an indication of what will likely be a stronger storm next year. Exactly when will be determined as we learn more about this year's cycling pattern, but we can mark this down now, this is a seven to 10 month warning of what will potentially be another major storm in this region next summer.

By Friday, Nicole is forecast to potentially track over the Florida peninsula and briefly out over the Gulf of Mexico before it gets picked up by that major winter storm. This will likely become a full blown blizzard over North Dakota.

Surface Weather Map Valid 6 AM Friday

This major winter storm will blow a cold front through KC and it will likely far enough to the east by next Sunday where we may end up with decent weather for the home Chiefs game agains the Jaguars.

A winter storm may form next week that could affect KC? There are way too many uncertainties, however. Here is the snowfall forecast of the next nine days:

Snow forecast ending next Tuesday

As you can see, this shows around 1 to 2 inches in our area, so could the snowflake contest end next week? There is very low confidence in this possibility at the moment.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly sunny and mild. There will be a brisk easterly breeze at 10-20 mph and gusty. High: 58°
  • Tonight: Increasing clouds and cool. The easterly breeze continues. Low: 48°
  • Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a brief shower. The chance of measurable rain is just 20%. High: 64°
  • Wednesday: Sunny & warmer as south winds return at 10-20 mph. High: 77°

We will go in-depth on our weather forecasts on KSHB 41 today and tonight.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes reading the weather blog. Have a great Victory Monday!