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Weather Blog - Weekend forecast thoughts & the LRC

Annual Rainfall
Posted at 6:08 PM, Jun 04, 2021
and last updated 2021-06-04 19:32:05-04

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The weekend is here – Let's take a look at some rainfall stats and the weekend forecast.

We are moving right into a great weekend weather forecast on this Friday Night in The Big Town! There is less than a 5% chance of rain Saturday, and then the chance will go up to 20% on Sunday. Do we need rain? Well, it depends on whether you have a garden or lawn. We need around 1" of rain per week right now to keep everything green, and that will go up to nearly 2" of rain per week when it heats up a bit more.

The jet stream has retreated north, and it has provided the conditions for today's 106 degrees in Bismarck, N.D. What did I just say? Yes, it got that hot. All of last year, Kansas City didn't even get above 94 degrees, so is this a sign of things to come?

Sunday Afternoon USA

This map above shows Sunday's rather calm weather, and look below as I zoom in:

3.jpg

There will be some very weak flow aloft. What I mean is that the winds aloft are around 10 mph at 10,000 to 20,000 feet up. If any of these showers or thunderstorms do form Sunday, they will move slowly. This means that if you get underneath one, you may see a heavy downpour for 30 minutes. Most areas will get missed, and this is why we are putting in just a 20% chance on Sunday.

Rainfall for the year is above average. Take a look:

Annual Rainfall

The weather pattern continues to cycle regularly, according to the LRC. The signature part of the pattern will cycle through between June 12 and 18 or so. In the previous LRC cycles, this has been pretty active. What will this almost-summer version of the LRC bring? We will discuss this in the next week as the pattern cycles through.

The LRC sets up in October, cycles, continues and lasts until the next late September or early October. So, we are in the same pattern that set up last fall. Take a look at the overall rainfall total for this year's LRC:

Rainfall In This Year's LRC

The rainfall total you see here, above, is the total from October through our current date. For this year's LRC, Kansas City is just a bit below average. This is a true measure of what this weather pattern has been like since it set up last fall. We get just enough rain to keep it green. We get just enough rain to prevent us from being in drought conditions. We had just enough rain and snow to keep us from having any flooding. But, the big question will be, will it dry out this summer? I am expecting that middle week of the month to produce some heavier thunderstorms. Overall, however, I have some concerns. If we just use what has happened in the first 8 months of this year's LRC, then we are likely going to have near average rainfall this summer.

Now, remember, 2" of rain per week is what is really needed to keep everything lush and green. That is well above average rainfall. So, we may be watering a bit soon, and some of you have already started watering.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary blog! Have a great weekend.

- Gary