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Typically, Kansas is a slam dunk for Republican candidates, at least when it comes to the U.S. Senate.
But with what looks to be a close race between incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and candidate Adam Hamilton (D), President Donald Trump made a campaign stop outside Wichita.
RELATED | President Donald Trump urges Kansans to get out and vote in midterm elections
I reached out to Matt Harris, an associate professor of political science at Park University, to get insight into what the visit means for the upcoming election.
"Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932. So, I think if you're a Democrat, just seeing President Trump in Kansas in mid-October in a midterm year speaks to how close the race is," Harris said. "If you look at the president showing up in Kansas, you look at the money that's coming in to support Roger Marshall. I think those are all positive signs for the Democrats."
Still, when it comes to Kansas voters, Harris doesn't necessarily expect a blue wave in the Sunflower State.
"Republicans are probably likely to take the governorship in Kansas with Ty Masterson. I think the Senate race is going to be a razor's edge. I would say I think Hamilton's got a good chance," Harris said. "I think the question, and maybe the reason Trump was in Kansas, do some of those Republicans who aren't particularly fond of the way things are going, do they eventually come home? Do they late decide [that] I'm a Republican, I'm going to support the Republican?"
But Harris cautions the president's visit can be a gamble for fellow Republican candidates given Trump's approval rating falling as low as 31%, per Reuters.
"I think if you're Roger Marshall, if you're Donald Trump, you would hope the effect of a visit from the president to Kansas is to rally the base. Elections are not just about persuasion; they're about turnout," Harris said. "And so, getting some of those people who are very likely to vote Republican, if they vote, getting those people motivated, getting those people to the polls, I think that's the intended positive effect if you're Roger Marshall.
"I think on the other side, President Trump is not particularly popular. His approval is down even among rural voters — a lot of issues affecting rural voters, the price of diesel, some of the effects that tariffs have had on agriculture. He's not particularly popular. And he's not popular among independents. So, for those independents, those people on the fence, I don't know that tying yourself to President Trump is necessarily going to be a positive."
Either way, Harris points out that much of the country will be watching Kansas closely.
"Because, if Hamilton is able to win, I think that speaks to it being a really good year for the Democratic Party. I think we will see a fairly high turnout. The last time President Trump had a midterm election while he was president, we saw the highest midterm we'd seen in over a hundred years," Harris said. "I don't know if it will get to that level, but you can expect there to be high turnout, and I think you would tend to say that would benefit the Democratic Party just because a lot of times when you see that high turnout, it's about dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration."
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