The Quiet Weather Pattern - Where Is The Cold Air?

November 30th Temperatures
Posted at 7:40 AM, Nov 23, 2021
and last updated 2021-11-23 08:50:04-05

Good morning bloggers,


The weather is incredibly calm across all of the United States as we approach Thanksgiving. There will be increasing south winds the next couple of days, and one cold day in the forecast, but there are no major storm systems developing. What is going on in this weather pattern? Let's take a look.

Kansas City is still waiting for its first inch of snow. We are not alone. Boulder, CO has now set their record for the latest first measurable snow. The old record was November 19th. Denver, CO has yet to see snow on the ground this season as well. What is happening? This weather pattern is just not producing much cold air.

Upper Level Flow (500 mb level, around 18,000 feet above us) Valid December 8th

Upper Level Flow Two Weeks From Now

Within two weeks we see a change in the pattern, a shift that may be strong enough to create our first cold blast of the season. But, there are still too many questions as we learn more about this year's LRC. The Arctic Air has been held way north so far.

Here is a look at the temperatures over North America, the Pacific Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean:

November 30th Temperatures

This temperature forecast is valid one week from today on November 30th. This shows a very cold Arctic air mass developing over northern Canada extending across the North Pole. At the same time, this shows Kansas City may be near 70 degrees next week. That change due in around a week later should be enough to blast the cold air south. We haven't seen enough evidence in this pattern to have confidence in this cold air shifting south. We will monitor this closely in the next couple of weeks.

Thanksgiving Day Forecast

Thanksgiving Day Forecast

This is about as quiet of a Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend I have ever seen. There is that one band of mostly rain showers from the Great Lakes southwest to the Texas coast. The winter weather is up in southern Canada, and there is a storm coming into Seattle. Other than that there are no major weather impacts for travel the entire weekend.

In Kansas City, Thanksgiving Day is the one cold day, and it sticks out like a sore thumb:

7-Day Forecast

Rainfall Forecast:

Rainfall Forecast Next 7 Days

This calm weather pattern is keeping it dry in KC and dry out west. A band of rain will likely begin forming as tomorrows storm zips past us real quickly. This is why we have just a 20% chance tomorrow evening. It looks like it will more likely leave us dry.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. We hope you have a happy Thanksgiving holiday!