Weather Blog - 10 Degrees Below Now With Some Snow Heading Our Way

Radar & Temperatures at 7:30 AM
Posted at 7:01 AM, Feb 15, 2021
and last updated 2021-02-15 08:49:20-05

Good morning bloggers,

Wind Chill Warning With Some Snow Today!

What is going on? This is getting ridiculous. Welcome to the Gabbing With Gary blog. Yes, our Creative Services Department just named it, and it is catchy, don't you think? A few of you have been reading our blog since we started it in 2002 when blogging was a new thing. Today, we begin a discussion on this extreme weather striking the United States. As you likely know, we issued the Arctic Blast Watch weeks ago, and unfortunately it didn't just arrive, but it is powerful and impacting. Tonight will be a very cold night as conditions become favorable for radiational cooling. We will discuss this and more, so let's get started.

The Temperature at 6:45 AM This Morning Was 10 Below

This may be the coldest cloudy morning in Kansas City history. I am not sure a statistic with clouds and cold exists. I do know that it is almost hard to believe that there is snow heading our way with the dew point at -18°, and the temperature of -10°.

Watch the radar echoes increase from 7 AM to 7:30 AM:


This area of snow from Emporia to just south of KC is heading our way. It is so cold and dry that an inch of snow would be a lot for this situation, but it is a possibility later this morning into this afternoon.

Radar & Temperatures at 7:30 AM

This area of snow is rapidly increasing and moving into the KC metro area.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Cloudy with a 100% chance of snow. 1/2" to 1" is possible causing slick & hazardous conditions. WIND CHILL WARNING with wind chills 40 to 20 degrees below zero. High: 0°
  • Tonight: Clearing with temperatures dropping to between 20 and 10 below zero. A few spots will get colder than these extremes. Winds calming down. Low: -19°
  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High; 15°
  • Wednesday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of snow. Accumulations of up to an inch possible near and east of the state line. High: 19°

Ingredients for extreme cold tonight:

For the temperatures to drop to near our all time record low, we will need perfect conditions.

  • A clear sky allows for the temperatures to drop. This is called radiational cooling. It appears that it will be clear tonight
  • Snow on the ground. When there is a deeper snow pack there is less heat released from the earth. We have 2 to 3 inches on the ground with a bit more falling today
  • High pressure from the Arctic. A big high pressure area and ridge extends perfectly to right over KC by morning
  • Light winds: When there is no wind, then the air doesn't mix, and the temperature will drop to as low as possible

All of these ingredients likely exist tonight. Even a few clouds or light breezes can make the difference by as much as 10 degrees from one block to another. That's right, it could be -20 degrees down the street from you and -10 degrees at your house.

Surface Map Valid Tuesday Morning

Here is one of the many temperature forecasts for tomorrow morning. The models range from -5° to -25° in our area:

Forecast Temperatures Valid 6 AM Tuesday

Predicting low temperatures is one of the hardest parameters to forecast. We are still thinking that it may drop to around 19 degrees below zero, or four degrees shy of our record coldest temperature ever.

Winter Forecast Snow:
This graphic comes from the blog on December 14th:

Snow Forecast Probabilities Winter.jpg

Here is what I wrote that day:

"The way things have been going, I put that chance of under 10" of snow at 30%, and I am putting the most likely range at 10" to 15". There are other factors that must be considered in the big atmospheric puzzle shown earlier. The Arctic Oscillation may dip deep negative and cause blocking which would help shift the jet stream farther south and energize the pattern. If this blocking forms before winter is over we may end up with a couple of storms finally hitting KC. Until now, let's see how Tuesday's storm lines up, and we will look ahead to Christmas week in tomorrows blog."

Well, the Arctic Oscillation dipped deep negative last week. The block formed, as described in the blogs a week ago, and we are now dealing with the results. The weather pattern is spot on accurate according to the LRC, and we will discuss that fact in tomorrows blog. Remember we are in a 46 day cycle. What happened 46 days before this week? Our big New Year's Day snowstorm with 3-5 inches of snow. More on this tomorrow.

Right now Kansas City is still at 9.6" of snow for the season, which is hard to believe. Today is our tenth day in a row with snow falling in our sky. Incredible! And, all of the heavier snowfall accumulations have happened all around us. Here are our snowfall predictions from our team.

Snow Forecast Weather Team.jpg

Bundle up and limit outdoor exposure. Remember, the pets will have their paws freeze up in less than two minutes when they step in the snow, which will be near the air temperature. That snow is now 10 degrees below zero this morning.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Gabbing With Gary blog. This is a dangerously cold 24 hours we are in right now. Stay with 41 Action News, & we'll keep you advised. Have a great day and we will go in-depth on 41 Action News today and tonight.