Weather Blog: 125 Degrees Of Contrast On Christmas Day

Probability Of A White Christmas
Posted at 8:45 AM, Dec 18, 2021
and last updated 2021-12-18 12:02:21-05

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Saturday morning bloggers,

We are still waiting for our first chance of snow? What? That's right. We have not even had a chance of snow in our forecast yet. This is likely a very rare moment in my forecasting life. I am not sure if we have not even had hint of a chance of snow yet by the first day of winter. Winter officially begins on Monday, December 21st.

Christmas Day: 125 Degrees Of Temperature Contrast

125 Degree Spread

An Arctic air mass is growing over Canada, and there are some signs that it will come closer to KC before the end of the year. Look at the temperature contrast from a forecast of 85° in Texas and 40 below zero over northern Canada. This is a 125 degree contrast. This temperature contrast is what drives the strength of the jet stream, and it will be a subject of a blog next week.

The models are strongly hinting at a big warm up around Christmas Day. Now, I have low confidence at saying it may be close to 70 degrees on Christmas Day, as there is a strengthening of the jet stream going on and things may change, but this American Model (GFS Model) does show near 70 degrees in our area with that cold blast near the USA/Canada border on December 25th.

8 AM Saturday Morning Temperatures:

8 AM Temperatures

A cold front moved through overnight, and it is already moving into Tennessee. It will be a cold and breezy Saturday, but with a few bands of clouds.

Over the next week, the weather pattern will be responding to this 125 degrees of contrast. There are some indications of our first chance of snow before New Year's Day, but nothing stands out yet, so for now we will continue this dry pattern.

Expect a high today in the middle to upper 30s with wind chills near 20 degrees. Tonight will be the coldest night of the season so far. We haven't dipped below 20 degrees, but we will tonight. Expect a low between 13 and 19 degrees by Sunday morning.

Probability Of A White Christmas

I am leaving our chance of a White Christmas at 1/2%, which means there is a 99.5% chance of no snow for Christmas this year. But, I am saying there is a chance! We have a few more days for something to show up.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. Have a great weekend and bundle up today!