Weather Blog - 1st KC 100° in three years is in the forecast

Thursday's Forecast
Posted at 7:08 AM, Jun 16, 2021
and last updated 2021-06-16 08:20:44-04

Good morning bloggers,

Yesterday was already a crazy weather day with Palm Springs, CA reaching 120 degrees. It isn't even summer yet. Kansas City may be about to have its first 100 degree day in almost three years.

The last 100 degree day in Kansas City happened on July 12, 2018, or almost three years ago. Here is the forecast I showed last night on the 10 PM newscast, and we are forecasting 100 Thursday and 101 Friday.


The set up has one fly in the ointment problem with 100 degrees being reached tomorrow. There is a chance of a small area of showers and thunderstorms drifting near the KS/MO border tomorrow morning. The chance is around 20%. If these showers don't get organized, then 100 degrees is likely. I don't see any chance of that happening Friday, so Friday has an even better chance of 100 degrees.

Thursday's Forecast
Thursday's Forecast

There is also an Air Quality Alert for today. There won't be much wind, and with the temperatures reaching such levels, there will be air stagnation and the accumulation of some pollution near the ground. For those sensitive to poor air quality we are suggesting you to limit your time outdoors today. The wind should pick up enough Thursday to mix the air better and lower the pollution levels.

There is an anticyclone, discussed in yesterday's blog, that has blossomed over the western United States and is now centered over the Four Corners area of Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah. Within the next five days this "heat wave creating machine" will break down and shift way to the southwest. This will maintain the heat wave over California. The upper level flow shows a deep summer "Polar Vortex" that will form over Canada:

Major Change

This developing Canada system will drive a cold front through Kansas & Missouri by Monday. This will also begin producing chances for rain and thunderstorms. It is getting a bit crispy out there, and we need the rain now. The outlook for the next two weeks is for Kansas City to have between 1" and 5" of rain. We will discuss these chances in the next few days.

A Tropical Storm Is Developing:

The National Hurricane Center has now increased the probability of cyclone development to 90% within the next three days. This forecast below is the prediction made February 1 to arrive this week, over 100 days ago. The LRC provides the technology to make these accurate predictions far in advance. Take a look at what we made in February to target this week.

Tropics FCST Formation

Here is the latest forecast from the NHC. This is their 3-day forecast, and the above prediction is the 100-day forecast using the LRC:

NHC Forecast June 16

We will be monitoring this closely in the next few days. If a named storm develops, and it would be named Claudette, then this triggers an 84% chance of a stronger named storm in one of the last two LRC cycles of this years pattern, or around the first week of August and/or around mid to late September.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny & hot. High: 95°
  • Tonight: A few clouds & warm. Low: 73°
  • Thursday: There is a slight chance of a morning shower or thunderstorm. Mostly sunny & breezy. Southwest winds 10-25 mph. High: 100°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary blog.