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Weather Blog - A Cold Blast Arrives Sunday

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Posted at 8:27 AM, Oct 15, 2020
and last updated 2020-10-15 12:08:26-04

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City is still sitting at no measurable rain in October. The weather pattern is still setting up and this next week is going to be fun to watch develop. A possible storm system is showing up that may end our dry spell, or at least provide some relief. There are many questions and we will be discussing these questions and attempt to answer them today and tonight on 41 Action News.

The Questions:

  1. It has been dry for the first half of October. Will this dry spell continue next week, and is this a trend for the entire winter?
  2. How strong will the cold front by on Sunday?
  3. How much rain is possible next week; what are the models showing right now?

Let's answer these questions.

The LRC sets up in October and November, so the pattern is setting up right now. It is not set yet, however, so we have a lot more of this pattern to experience before anyone can make a prediction for the winter. We will have our forecast in a few weeks. Today is October 15th, and when I first discovered that the river of air above us is cycling regularly over the Northern Hemisphere, I noticed that October 15th to November 5th were the most critical three weeks to help us see what this pattern is capable of; snow, rain, dry, warm, cold, severe weather, and more! So, let's pay close attention to this.

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This map above shows a very strong cold front that is on our doorstep Saturday evening. It will warm into the 70s ahead of this front Saturday, and then this happens:

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It will likely be cloudy on Sunday. Colder air will blast in, but is this going to be another dry cold front? It appears it will be, but then what happens next may increase our chance of rain. Here are the rainfall forecasts from the American model and the European model, for the next 7 days:

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The European Model has more of an organized storm next week, and it has 2 to 3 inches of rain in the area, while the American model has a lot less. Look how there is no rain or snow from California to Colorado. This is another area to monitor closely as we move through this first cycle of this years weather pattern.

New Data Alert: The models came in and went with the American model showing very dry conditions for next week. Now, this may change later so we will discuss what it means as the next few days go by. We really need that good drink of water! Although it has been great for harvest!

The cold front on Sunday is looking quite strong. The winds ahead of it will be from the southwest on Saturday, and the wind may gust up to 50 mph. So, hold onto your hats on Saturday, and then there will be a wind shift to the north Saturday night into Sunday with winds almost as strong from the north, possibly up to 50 mph as well. Sunday may see temperatures in the 40s during the afternoon. There is even a chance of a few snowflakes near the Iowa border. Our snowflake contest will begin next week, so look for information on the contest soon.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring the LRC. Have a great Thursday!

Gary