Weather Blog - A cold front is moving through on the last full day of summer

Rainfall Forecast
Posted at 7:47 AM, Sep 21, 2022
and last updated 2022-09-21 08:47:24-04

Good morning bloggers,

We have made it to the last full day of summer! Who is ready for it to cool off? We just had an extremely rare end of summer heat wave. I will have to do some checking on this, but this may be the latest heat wave Kansas City has ever experienced since records began. Remember a heat wave is defined to be three-consecutive-days with 95° or hotter. It was 96° Sunday, 99° Monday, and 99° again yesterday! All three were record highs with the record being broken by four degrees the past two days!

Here is some great information from Hugh Crowther. He shared this with me a couple days ago for September 19:

"Temperatures soar into the upper 90s across the Kansas City area, marking the second straight day of record heat. The high of 99 degrees at the International Airport easily surpasses the previous record for the date of 95 degrees (established in 1931 and equaled in 1954), and is the third hottest reading of record for so late in the season. The temperature in Lawrence KS hits 101 degrees. At the start of the day a stationary front extends from west central Kansas across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri. By late morning it begins to lift northeastward as a warm front, and by the end of the day lies over western and southern Iowa.

Eastward moving mid level clouds develop during the early morning hours, from northeastern Kansas to east central Missouri, but slowly dissipate after sunrise. Scattered high cirrus clouds move eastward into northern portions of the Kansas City area during the late afternoon, and move into southern sections during the early evening. Winds are southwesterly during the early morning. Winds become light westerly toward sunrise, then light southerly after sunrise. Winds are again southwesterly during the late morning and afternoon, with brisk winds in the late afternoon. Winds are light southerly during the evening.

Winds average 9.6 mph for the day, with a peak wind of 16 mph out of the south southwest, and a peak gust of 22 mph out of the south southwest, both during the late afternoon.

Morning lows across the Kansas City area vary from 72 degrees at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Pleasant Hill MO to 76 degrees at the Kansas City Downtown Airport and the Johnson County Executive Airport in Olathe KS. The low of 76 degrees at the Downtown Airport equals the record for that location, set in 2018. Afternoon highs across the Kansas City area are in the upper 90s, varying from 97 degrees to 99 degrees.

The temperature in Saint Joseph MO soars from a low of 62 degrees to a high of 94 degrees. The mercury rises from 62 degrees at 7 AM to 86 degrees by Noon."

A cold front is heading our way:

7 AM Surface Map

This 7 AM surface map, above, shows the cold front that his heading our way. Temperatures will warm into the 80s and 90s ahead of this front and then the winds will increase from the north. Some of the models have rain, while others leave us dry. We will be monitoring radar closely and updating you on our rainfall forecast on KSHB41 news.

Rainfall Forecast

This would be quite frustrating if this rainfall forecast verifies. This is from the NAM model showing 2" of rain northwest of us and no rain east of KC. The chance of rain will increase later today and tonight into early Thursday with the colder air moving in.

The Tropics:

Tracking the tropic

It has been a quiet hurricane season in the United States so far. Major Hurricane Fiona is quite strong and getting stronger. Fortunately this one will miss the USA. There is a system that was predicted to threaten Florida and in our LRC forecast due in around the last third of September. Well, we believe this system I have circled is that system. The Chiefs play at Tampa Bay a week from Sunday night, so we will monitor this closely as it could affect travel later next week.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing in this weather experience. Have a great Wednesday.