Weather Blog - Dangerous heat wave begins tomorrow in Kansas City

4 PM Tuesday
Posted at 6:23 AM, Jul 20, 2022
and last updated 2022-07-20 10:47:53-04

Good morning bloggers,

A Dangerous Heat Wave will begin Thursday!

A weak summer cold front moved through overnight. We will benefit from this front by having some cooler air today. Expect highs in the 90-95 degree range.

Here are the hottest days from last summer and so far this summer:

Hottest Summer Days

We are likely going to finally exceed last summer's hottest day of 98°, but it hasn't happened yet! We are predicting Kansas City's first official 100° high temperature since July 12, 2018. This will happen by Friday or Saturday as conditions become very favorable for high heat.

Speaking of high heat, look at how hot it did get ahead of this front on Tuesday. 113 degrees in a couple of spots as of 4 p.m. yesterday afternoon, and it ended up being 114 degrees in Altus, Oklahoma.

4 PM Tuesday

One of the hottest days will likely be Saturday. Here is one of our model forecasts for the first half of the weekend:

Saturday Forecast Highs

The next cold front appears to be a bit stronger than today's slight cool down. It is quite tricky as the front will stall. Where it stalls will decide two big questions:

  1. Heavy thunderstorms will likely develop north of the stalling front
  2. It will be much cooler in the areas where rain falls. A rain-cooled airmass will likely form in the area where thunderstorms form

Temperatures will likely be in the 60s in Iowa, or far to the north of KC and 100s just south of KC by early next week. Take a look at this map valid on Monday.

Summer temperature extremes

A few of you have been wondering how this heat fits the LRC. This year's pattern is cycling every 9-weeks or so, and the pattern will continue until late September when the new LRC will be evolving. Look at what has happened in each of the four previous LRC cycles in KC:

  • November 6-17: We had around a 10-day stretch of above average temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s. It reached 70 or higher three times and it was in the 60s five other days.
  • January 11-14: After it was 1 degree around New Year's Day, the coldest winter temperature. It warmed up into the 50s to near 60° right on schedule, lining up with November
  • March 13-22: Kansas City had a 10-day stretch of well above average temperatures. It was in the 60s and 70s
  • May 9-19: Kansas City had around a 10-day stretch with record breaking heat and above average temperatures. It reached 90 degrees or hotter four days in a row

All four previous cycles produced warmer than average to much warmer than average temperatures, and this week's heat is right on schedule.

The jet stream reaches its weakest average strength and farthest north position during the last week of July and the first week of August. So, if there was no LRC, this time of the year would be the hottest time of the year anyway. But, we do have order in chaos. The LRC describes that order and the LRC favors a break in the heat next week. How far south will it reach, and will we see rain?

This heat fits. A break in the heat also fits! And, some rain fits! Now, let's see how this all unfolds. The one weather feature we are highly confident in right now is this heat building in the next few days!

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Nearly 100% sunshine and slightly cooler. Highs: 87° north to 97° south
  • Thursday: Heating up with no chance of rain. Highs near 100° in KC
  • Friday: Very hot. If it doesn't hit 100° Thursday, it likely will Friday or Saturday. High: 101°
  • Saturday: Very hot. This will make it officially a heat wave as this will be the third consecutive day of 95° or higher. High: 102°
  • Sunday: Increasing clouds and cooler north. Very hot in most spots. Highs: 95° - 105°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog.