Weather Blog - A Dramatic Weekend Weather Pattern

Friday Temperatures
Posted at 7:55 AM, May 05, 2021
and last updated 2021-05-05 09:39:54-04

Good morning bloggers,

A rather fascinating weather pattern is setting up for the weekend. There will be a huge temperature contrast developing, and Kansas City is in the region where predicting temperatures will be quite difficult beginning Thursday and even more difficult Friday through Saturday. Take a look at the surface set up developing.

Surface Set-Up Friday Night

This surface forecast above shows a developing warm front, the red line. This is just a fascinating beginning to what will likely end up with thunderstorms near Kansas City. So, I am pretty convinced, but not 100% convinced yet, that we will have rain and thunderstorms in our area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Look at how that front tightens up:

Friday Temperatures

Look at that temperature contrasts. On Friday, above, we have 50s to 90s, and then I plotted Saturday below, where I show 45 degrees near the Iowa border, and 100 degrees is not out of the question in that warm sector near the dry line.

7 PM Saturday Night Forecast

What happens next is still a big question. Look at where Kansas City is located on this map above. We are likely going to be in the cooler air just north of the warm front. If strong thunderstorms form, the heaviest rain will be most likely near the warm front. Once thunderstorms do form, this front will potentially be forced farther south. These maps just are simulations by computer models. Forecasting the weather for Kansas City is much harder than forecasting the weather for Oklahoma City in this set up. Oh, Oklahoma has its own challenges, but I know for sure it will be in the 70s or 80s Saturday, whereas here in KC it could be in the 40s, 50s, 60s, or 70s. We are near that line.

Saturday Night:

Saturday Night Set-Up

By 1 AM Sunday, this forecast map above shows an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System), or complex of strong thunderstorms (possibly severe), forecast to be near the Nebraska border and heading our way. If we are near that warm front, the thunderstorms will likely turn southeast and move right over our area early Sunday morning with a cold surge to follow. This is a highly complex set up and we will discuss tonight on 41 Action News.

In the mean time, it is going to be a great day. Expect sunshine with a high of 69° this afternoon. We will analyze the new data and go in-depth with KC's most accurate forecast on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary blog. Have a great Wednesday.