Weather blog: A few late afternoon, evening thunderstorms Monday in Kansas City

Severe Weather Outlook Today
Posted at 7:35 AM, Aug 29, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-29 11:05:37-04

Good morning bloggers,

September is coming! As we move through these last three days of August, it will begin with a hot Monday and end with a cooler Tuesday and Wednesday, but only a little drop into the 80s.

A front is moving our way. This is a weak cold front that will be right near Kansas City later this afternoon and evening. There is a lot of fuel, moisture available for thunderstorms to form, and we are expecting a few heavy thunderstorms that may form into a line and drift slowly. This slow drift will mean that some spots will get 2" of rain today while a few others may only have sprinkles or not even a drop of rain.

Surface Forecast Valid at 5 PM Today:

Surface Forecast Valid 5 PM Today

The blue line plotted on this map shows the cold front. There will be a north breeze north of the front and a southerly breeze south of the front. This will cause weak convergence near the front and with the higher dew points near 70 degrees we are expecting thunderstorms to form around 5 or 6 p.m.

On this map above, you can see that the HRRR model is showing that it is still dry at 5 p.m. I am predicting that by 6 p.m. thunderstorms will be forming. There is a small risk of a few severe thunderstorms.

Severe Weather Outlook Today

There is a level three out of five risk near Chicago and in our area it is a level one out of five risk. The main risks will be some hail up to around the size of a quarter near the middle of the developing cells. We will be monitoring these closely during our late afternoon and evening newscasts.

The Tropics:

The tropics are still quiet this morning and there is a lot of chatter about it becoming much more active soon. Well, one developing storm would be considered much more active. As predicted by only one source, Weather 20/20, hurricane season has been almost silent and we are less than two weeks away from peak hurricane season. Using the LRC we predicted our #1, and first target of the season to be forming southeast of Florida, and we also predicted it would likely stay offshore.

National Hurricane Center Outlook

The red shaded area shows the 80% chance of a named storm forming in the next five days. Again, Weather 20/20 predicted this system to form this week five months ago. So, confidence is high we will have Tropical Storm Danielle by next weekend. And, then hopefully it does indeed stay offshore. It will make a move towards the southeastern USA coast, so we will be monitoring it closely.

At this point in the hurricane season we are at 9% of the average hurricane season. So, all of those other forecasts of way above average activity this season are inaccurate. I am expecting some activity for the next month, but a continuation of a below average season.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Sunny with afternoon cumulus clouds building up. There is a 60% chance of a late afternoon or evening thunderstorm within 50 miles of I-70. A south breeze at 5-15 mph is expected today. High: 93°
  • Tonight: Evening thunderstorms will end before midnight. It will be partly cloudy with the wind shifting to the north at 5-10 mph. Low: 65°
  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 85°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing in this weather experience.

Have a great start to the week.