Weather Blog: Severe risk taken out of our area today, rain still possible

Low severe risk near KC
Posted at 7:48 AM, Mar 22, 2022
and last updated 2022-03-22 10:21:15-04

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,

There were reports of around 20 tornadoes over Texas yesterday and the risk of severe weather increases today. Did any of you see the video of the pickup truck being tossed by one of the tornadoes? The truck was rolled over a couple of times, and the last time the tornado rolled it one more time where it landed straight up, and the driver drove away: Tornado crosses highway picking up a truck

The severe weather risk is actually higher today:

Tornado Risk Today

This map is from the Storm Prediction Center and it shows today's tornado risk as they see it. This did have a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of where you live from Kansas City east to central Missouri, but they took it out due to cooler air being in place. Farther south the chance increases to 15% chance within 25 miles of where they live down there and it is hatched. The hatched area means strong tornadoes are possible.

For our area, it is looking like this low cloud deck will not clear out today. If this is the case, then the chance will go even lower than the 2% chance they placed in our area. And, as just discussed, the SPC took us out of the 2% tornado risk. We still have to pay close attention to this, and our weather team will be doing just that all day!

Low severe risk near KC

Look at the map above, and this forecast for temperatures at 3 p.m. below. If it is under 65 degrees, then any chance of the thunderstorms forming becoming strong enough to produce a tornado will be lower. This temperature forecast from the latest HRRR model shows 60 degrees or lower in most areas. This is due to this stratus deck we have in our sky this morning not clearing. So, let's keep our eyes to the sky. If the sun breaks out around noon and it warms up, then we will have to pay very close attention to the development this afternoon.

Temperature forecast 3 PM today

After this risk goes by, we will then begin looking into the possibility of a few snowflakes Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Looking into part three of this storm:

Colder air will be moving in tonight and Wednesday. There is an area of snow forecast to drop down into northwestern Missouri tomorrow night. It has been looking less and less as it gets closer, and it is just something for us to monitor as well. On this map below there is an area of snow moving south and it would be enough to get everything white on grassy surfaces by Thursday morning. The road temperatures will likely stay above freezing, so we are not anticipating any travel problems with this possible snowfall.

Snow forecast Wednesday night

After this storm moves by, we will be looking at potential blocking far to the north. A block is forecast to form over northern Canada and the northern Atlantic Ocean:

Developing weather pattern

We have gone most of the winter season with almost no blocking. If this block forms, a pattern may get energized and produce a major storm next week. We will discuss this in tomorrow's blog.

Kansas City weather timeline:

  • Today: Cloudy with a chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm. There will be an east-southeast breeze of 5 to 15 miles per hour shifting to the west and northwest later in the day. There will be some drizzle this morning. High: 59 degrees
  • Tonight: Cloudy with a chance of rain. Low: 38 degrees
  • Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of rain possibly mixed with snow. Temperatures in the 30s with north winds 10 to 20 miles per hour.
  • Wednesday night: A chance of rain possibly changing to snow with a dusting on grassy surfaces possible. Low: 33 degrees
  • Thursday: Cloudy with morning snowflakes and raindrops mixing possible. Gradual clearing in the afternoon. High: 43 degrees

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day and sharing this weather experience. We will be monitoring the sky closely today. Have a great Tuesday.