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Weather Blog: A major change to winter weather is showing up

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Posted at 8:20 AM, Dec 22, 2020
and last updated 2020-12-22 12:07:21-05

Good morning bloggers,

Jeff Penner and I have been playing a game with these weather models. We are trying to make sure that if either of us gets excited about a possible storm showing up for Kansas City, then the other one has to say, "nope", "No way", "Don't even think about it", "NO". We do this because thus far in this years LRC, the cycling weather pattern, just about every chance of rain or snow ends up being almost nothing in our area. This is how KC has only 0.06" of rain so far this month. But, at the same time, places like Oklahoma City have been hit by winter storms, major winter storms, multiple times. Oklahoma City has had three major winter storms from a devastating ice storm to two snow storms. So, it hasn't been that far away. Omaha, Nebraska has also had over a half foot of snow thus far. So, this pattern has been difficult on the weather enthusiasts out there, of which I am one! Could this trend finally be about to break? Could a storm sneak in and finally hit our area? Or, will it once again miss our local region? This storm I am talking about is showing up for next week, New Year's week.

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The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to dip deep negative in the next two weeks. In November, this index lived in high positive territory and is a direct result of why it has been so mild. Well, this deeper negative dip may lead to some blocking, and if some blocking develops, then the storm systems will get energized and dip a bit farther south. This may lead to next week's chance of snow.

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This map above shows a storm being forced a bit farther south next week. And, it shows the beginning of blocking building over the northern Atlantic and Greenland. If this blocking doesn't quite happen, then next weeks chance of snow will fade and shift to areas that have already had snow this season. It is something we are monitoring closely and if this trend continues I will begin talking about it tonight on 41 Action News. The European and American models are both showing a lot of snow near KC next week. Again, Jeff Penner would be saying, "no", as we have seen some of these in the past few weeks. Now, our weather team will keep you updated, and if any serious trend in the snowy direction truly shows up, we will let you know far in advance.

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A strong cold front will blast through by this time Wednesday morning. The wind will pick up from the north and temperatures will drop. It may get as low as 10 degrees by Christmas morning. This storm is another dry one for KC, but it is a snowy one for areas two to three states east of us. And, there is a risk of severe weather showing up with this system, which is what we predicted for this week in our winter forecast write up. More on this tomorrow.

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For now, let's enjoy this 63 degree day. It may get warmer than 63 with strong south winds. We will go in-depth on 41 Action News today and tonight!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Have a great day.

Gary