Weather Blog - A Perfect Saturday Forecast & Next Week's Changes

7 PM Wednesday
Posted at 7:48 AM, Apr 02, 2021
and last updated 2021-04-02 09:15:45-04

Good morning bloggers,

It's Friday! And, we are about to have a perfect weather day Saturday.

What is a perfect weather day? It likely depends on each person. Here is my perfect day:

  • Sunshine with maybe a few beautiful clouds
  • A light breeze under 15 mph
  • A high temperature of 75°

This is the forecast for Saturday! Now, today will have an increasing south wind that may gust to 30 mph or higher later this afternoon. Then, the wind calms down just enough for the perfect Saturday. On Sunday the wind increases again.

The Developing Weather Pattern:

500 mb Flow valid 7 AM Sunday

This map above, and this map below shows the flow aloft at 500 mb, or around half way up in weight through the atmosphere. The top of the atmosphere weighs 0 mb, and the surface is near 1,000 mb. MB stands for milibar which is a measure of pressure, or how heavy the atmopshere is above you. This 500 mb level is around 18,000 feet up and is the most important level for meteorologists to analyze storm systems. What happens aloft will decide how the surface will set up.

500 mb flow valid 7 PM Tuesday

The pattern is going through a transition early next week. And, there is a storm that will sneak into the western United States. This storm will track into the plains and affect our weather here in Kansas City by Tuesday through the end of next week. The impacts are very uncertain at this moment.

Surface Forecast valid Sunday Evening

This next map above shows the surface forecast valid Sunday evening. Notice how the south winds cross the Gulf of Mexico over south Texas, and extend all the way up into Canada. This will provide the conditions for our first 80 degree day since October 22, over 160 days ago.

As we move into early next week, a storm system will begin forming. This is far from a typical spring storm system, so I still have a lot of questions on how it will develop and track. For the first time this season, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will get into our region and we may see our first 60 degree dew points of the season.

This map below shows one possible set up for Tuesday:

Surface Forecast valid 7 PM Tuesday

And, then by Wednesday it looks like this, below:

7 PM Wednesday

This map shows a lot of disorganization. This is one of the reasons why I left the precipitation chance off of last nights 7-day forecast. We are adding in the low chances of thunderstorms and later today we will update the 7-day forecast. I just want to see how this looks on the new data.

Have a great Friday!!!!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary blog. Have a great weekend.