Good Tuesday bloggers,
We are tracking a series of systems as the pattern is about to become more active. When you start talking about systems in December, you begin to think more about ice and snow rather than rain. Could this lead to a "White Christmas?" It is the one time of year when a majority of people like snow.
The National Weather Service tweeted this out on Monday as they are getting "White Christmas" questions.
Let's go through the series of storm systems.
SYSTEM #1 (TODAY):
This is a small system and will bring some drizzle to locations mostly south of Kansas City. Some of the drizzle may sneak into southern Kansas City. Temperatures will be above freezing, so no icing is expected. Roads may get damp to wet in drizzle areas as rainfall will be a trace to .02".
SYSTEM #2 (THURSDAY):
This will be a 100% chance of rain with temperatures in the 40s, possibly 50s. The heaviest rain will occur during the morning followed by periods of areas if light to moderate rain.
Any snow or ice will be confined to a small area on the northwest side of the precipitation area in Iowa. The snow will likely weaken as it moves into Wisconsin.
This second system will bring .25"-.75" of rainfall which is around 1/3 of the entire December average of 1.57". There will be heavier totals from Oklahoma and Tennessee. Anywhere it rains on the map below will be beneficial as there is some level of drought in almost all locations. Our drought has dropped from mostly level 2/3 of 5 to levels 1/2 of 5. There is still a small area of 3 of 5 drought around Kansas City.
Our drought is reducing because we have seen almost as much rain since Oct. 24 as we did between July 1 and Oct. 23. Now, that being said we are still over 7" of rain below average since July 1. So, a series of storm systems is good news.
SYSTEM #3 (NEXT MONDAY-TUESDAY, DECEMBER 13-14):
This is looking like a pretty big storm system. Right now it looks like we are on the warm side of the storm which means a period or two of rain and perhaps thunderstorms. Severe weather is possible from Oklahoma and Arkansas and points south and east. We are likely to cool for severe weather. A snowstorm is likely for the northern Plains, perhaps to western Nebraska. This storm could track farther south, but even if it does we will likely still see all rain. .25"-1" of rain is possible.
SYSTEM #4 (END OF NEXT WEEK, AROUND DECEMBER 16-20):
Colder air will move in after the third storm system. So, this opens the door to snow from the fourth system.
A fifth system is possible December 22-24. This could be snow as well. So, we have one-two chances of snow before Christmas. A "White Christmas" is defined as having at least 1" of snow on the ground. On average we have we have a 10% to 25% chance for a "White Christmas." This year we are on the high end of that range as of this moment.
Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.
