Good Tuesday bloggers,
It will be an interesting day of weather across the Plains after an interesting day of weather Monday. 1" to 2" of snow fell in some parts of northern and northeast Missouri. Trenton, MO received 2" of snow. The rest of the area saw rain mixed with sleet and snow. Liquid precipitation was in the 0.10" to 0.40" range. There were a few locations that received 0.40" to 0.60".
The official total for Kansas City was 0.29" that occurred at KCI. This brings the monthly total to 1.09" which is still below average by 0.59". We average 2.15" for the whole month of November, so we need more rain. This has certainly knocked out the high fire danger, but there is still a moderate drought approaching from the west. This one storm won't end the drought conditions, but could knock it down a bit. It will take 2-3 more wet storms to eliminate the drought areas. Today, is at least a start in the right direction.
Let's go through the forecast through Thanksgiving Day.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TUESDAY: There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for much of Oklahoma where large hail damaging winds and even tornadoes are not our of the question. Any thunderstorms that form down there will race up here Tuesday night and lose their severity, but could be heavy rain producers. The green area is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for primarily quarter sized hail and a few wind gusts over 58 mph. The KC area is on the northern fringe of the marginal risk. We just need rain, not severe weather.
TUESDAY NOON: It will be windy and cool with temperatures around 50. The first main round of rain and thunderstorms will be racing up I-35 into our region. Snow will be found way out in the western Plains with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. So, we do not expect much accumulation out there.
TUESDAY NOON-3 PM: The rain and some thunderstorms will be moving through. A widespread soaking is possible as temperatures hang around 50 with south winds 15-30 mph.
TUESDAY 3-8 PM: The first widespread round will move way off to the east and northeast near the Mississippi river as the main storm approaches from the west. During this period we will see periods of showers and a few thunderstorms with temperatures 50-55. It will be windy from the south, gusting 30-40 mph. Notice the line of thunderstorms from southern Kansas to central Oklahoma. This line may be severe as snow is falling about 100 miles to the northwest of the line. Cold air is limited with this system, so the snow may not add up to much. Some locations, however, could see a quick 2"-4" out in the western Plains.
TUESDAY 8-`10 PM: The line will race up I-35 and lose some of its punch. We will still see rain, thunderstorms, possibly small hail and a a few wind gusts 40-50 mph. Temperatures will be around 50. The snow band will still be moving across central Kansas. It will fall apart as it moves east.
TUESDAY 8 PM-WEDNESDAY 8 AM: The storm system races by and you can see no more snow. The line moved east and pretty much fell apart. We will be windy with a few showers along with temperatures 45-50 by 8 AM Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY 3 PM: The storm system will be in the Great Lakes, but the low, wrap around clouds will be stubborn. So, Wednesday looks mostly cloudy, windy and cool with temperatures 40-45. Any rain will have ended by 10 AM.
THANKSGIVING DAY: It will be a nice day with sunshine, a 5-15 mph breeze from the south and temperatures in the low to mid 50s. A weak, dry cold front will move through Friday. Right now it looks dry through Sunday with highs mostly 45-55 and lows 25-35. That is about average for this time of year.
RAINFALL FORECAST: Take a look at these rainfall forecast totals for today into Wednesday. This model and a few others have the I-35 corridor seeing the most with amounts 1" to 1.50". Some data has the heaviest farther north across northern Missouri. It will depend on where the thunderstorms track. The bottom line is that most locations should see at least a new .50".
Happy Thanksgiving.
Please don't drink/text and drive and stay healthy. A Drunk Driving Watch is in effect.
