Good Sunday bloggers,
We are tracking a strong storm system that was in California Saturday and in Phoenix Sunday morning. It will move through our region tonight into Monday.
Let's go through the weather timeline and potential significant weather impacts.
SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT:
There is a level 4 of 5 severe threat in most of Oklahoma. This is where the tornado threat is highest.
Our area has a level 1 of 5 risk north to a level 3 of 5 risk south. Our main threat is damaging wind gusts to 50-70 mph.
TODAY THROUGH 7 P.M.:
It will be cloudy and breezy with a few showers. The main chance for a few showers will be after 4 p.m. Temperatures will rise to the low 50s by 7 p.m. While we see showers, severe thunderstorms will be rapidly forming in the western Plains.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will form in the western Plains between 4 and 7 p.m. This is the stage of development when the tornado threat is highest.
TONIGHT (7-10 P.M.):
The strong to severe thunderstorms will evolve into a large area of rain and strong thunderstorms as they move east and northeast at 60 mph! This will put them on our doorstep around 10 p.m. As the thunderstorms race east and northeast the severe threat will evolve to damaging winds up to 50-70 mph. In some cases a several hundred mile long threat of 50-70 mph winds can cause much more damage than a small tornado that wreaks havoc in a 10-20 mile wide area. We are not minimizing the damage a tornado can do, but the wind damage can be much more impactful from a several hundred mile long line.
We will see scattered showers with winds increasing from the south and southeast to 15-35 mph.
TONIGHT 10 P.M.-MONDAY 4 A.M.:
This is when we will see the rain and strong thunderstorms track across the region. The strongest thunderstorms will last 30 minutes-one hour in any one location. Remember, the thunderstorms are moving east and northeast at 60 mph.
At 11:59 PM tonight is when we will likely reach our high of the day, 60°, as the thunderstorms race by. Below we will look at the severe weather impacts for us in more detail.
MONDAY 4-9 A.M.:
Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will exit quickly after 7-8 a.m. It will remain very windy long after the thunderstorms with gusts from the southwest to 40-50 mph. Our low temperature be around 50.
Why will it be windy after the thunderstorms? The reason is that the upper level storm is generating a deep surface low. The pressure will be 28.92" in Iowa at 7 a.m. Monday. This is equivalent to a category 1 hurricane. The friction of the land slows the wind, so our gusts will be 40-50 mph, way under a minimum category 1 hurricane wind speed of 74 mph. Now, you may have increased aches and pains as this deep low pressure moves across the region.
MONDAY 9 a.m.-4 p.m.:
We will see increasing sunshine with the wind decreasing rapidly after 4-5 p.m. Our high will be in the mid to upper 50s.
RAINFALL FORECAST:
A zone of 1"-2" of rain is likely from northeast Kansas to northwest Missouri into Iowa. The KC area will be in the .50"-1" zone. Locations to the south and east will see .25"-.50"
The rain and thunderstorms are moving so fast, it will limit the flash flooding threat. That being said, most of the rain will occur in a one hour period. So, some brief flash flooding can't be ruled out. Flash flooding is the #1 severe weather killer. "Turn around don't drown" if you see flowing water and can't judge the depth.
FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT SUMMARY:
The chance of scattered rain showers will increase 4-10 p.m. as temperatures rise to the low and mid 50s.
The best chance for rain and strong to severe thunderstorms occurs between 10 p.m. and 4 a.m. from west to east across the region.
The main impact threat from the thunderstorms tonight will be high wind. There is potential for 50-70 mph wind gusts in the thunderstorms. The tornado threat is not zero, but rather low. If a tornado occurred it would be on the leading edge of the line of thunderstorms. That threat literally lasts 15-30 minutes in any one location due to the speed of the thunderstorms.
Be weather aware tonight and stay with KSHB 41 and we'll keep you advised.
Have a great week ahead and stay healthy.
