UPDATE, 2 p.m.
What to expect:
- Now to 6 PM: Likely staying dry with a chance of a few thunderstorms forming by around 6 PM
- 6 PM to 9 PM: Thunderstorms form near the front, and then north of the front. There could be some impacts with lightning on the game
- 9 PM to midnight: Thunderstorms increase and become widespread
- Could we have a three-hour window for the game? Yes, but it will be a tight window if it does happen
- If there is lightning 8 miles away or less the NFL will delay the game
There Is A Chance Of A Lightning Delay During Tonight's Game!
We do have some weather problems for the Bills vs. Chiefs battle at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium tonight! A rather strong storm system is beginning to form this morning in the upper levels of the Troposphere. An upper level storm will become quite strong later tonight and as it approaches and strengthens a strong surface storm will be ignited.
This map above shows the developing surface low over southwestern Oklahoma. A developing Mid-Latitude Synoptic Scale storm system will be intensifying over Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening. A front will be stalling near or just south of Kansas City, and this is going to place our region in a zone for very heavy rain with thunderstorms, and a significant set-up for severe thunderstorms just south of our local area.
Severe Weather Risk:
This area has been having a severe weather drought for two years, just like Kansas City. Kansas City has now gone 864 days since our last Tornado Watch (May 28, 2019). Parts of Oklahoma have gone just as long. The new LRC has set up (the cycling weather pattern that you can learn more about at Weather2020.com). According to the LRC, a unique weather pattern sets up each early fall, cycles, and continues. The cycle is regular, so the part of the cycling pattern that is producing this week's series of storm systems will return and we will know when in a few weeks. For now, there are concerns for this first set up. On those maps above, you can see the level 4 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma.
Here is the Tornado Risk from the SPC:
That hatched ares shows the potential for significant strong tornadoes today. Kansas City is not in this risk today, but this does not mean we won't see heavy thunderstorms. Look at the rainfall forecast from one of the models that just came out overnight:
Kansas City has had only around 1/2" of rain in the past 35 days. This dry spell will end big time tonight. And, there is a second storm system due in late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a third storm system due in Thursday night that will add to these totals. Some localized flooding is likely in the usual spots, and we will have to monitor closely for flash flooding.
This map above shows the 8 PM forecast from one of our models. This shows that it is still dry for the Kickoff of the big rematch between Buffalo and Kansas City tonight. This prediction would verify near the end of the first quarter. Now, with that front near by, thunderstorms may form earlier, so a problem could begin as early as 6 PM of 7 PM. The game will be played in the rain, but if there is lightning, the NFL is required to stop the game. Last Monday night had a 40 minute delay in Los Angeles, of all places, due to lightning for the Chargers/Raiders game. The chance of a delay tonight seems to be rather high at the moment. Another problem is what is forecast to happen just two to three hours later:
By 10 PM, this same computer model shows increasing and wide-spread thunderstorms. If this can hold off until 10:30 PM, then the game could get finished before the lightning causes a delay.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today through 6 PM: A few periods of clouds with just a 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms. South winds shifting to the north and northeast at 5-15 mph. High: 82°
- Tonight from 7 PM -10:30 PM: For the game we will have a chance of thunderstorms developing. The chance is 60%. This leaves a 40% chance that we get the game in before a lightning problem.
- Tonight from 10:30 PM to 6 AM: A 100% chance of thunderstorms with heavy rain likely. 2" to 4" of rain are possible.
- Monday: Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain early in the day. The rain will end with highs in the 60s.
There is a second and third storm, which is really a third and fourth storm in this series of storm systems. When the LRC began just a few days ago we had that lead storm with some rain the other day, so this storm is really storm #2 in the series. Storm systems #3 and #4 will affect our area Tuesday night/Wednesday & Thurday night. A severe weather set-up is likely with those just south of KC again.
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We will keep you updated as this storm develops later today and tonight on KSHB-41 News. Have a great Sunday! Go Chiefs!