Weather Blog - A Very Wet Storm Begins

Noon Thursday Forecast
Posted at 5:28 AM, Oct 27, 2021
and last updated 2021-10-27 09:47:19-04

Good morning bloggers,

A major storm is about to produce a lot of rain in Kansas City. We have already had 3 .35" of rain this month, and Kansas City averages 3.25" of rain in October. How much rain fell in October a year ago? Only 0.88" fell the entire month. We will get all of last year's rainfall total before midnight tonight, and then we will be adding to the total as this strong storm slows down and spins little disturbances over us between now and Friday.

Rainfall Forecast By 5 PM Thursday:

Rainfall Forecast

There is no risk of severe thunderstorms in our area from this set up. The main risk will be rising water. A few spots may approach 4" of rain. This is not a "flash flooding" situation where water suddenly rises. This will be a slow rise in water levels. The areas that get close to 4" of rain are the most likely spots for some flooding to begin.

Radar shows rain from the The Gulf coast all the way to Canada and just west of KC:

7:41 AM Radar

By Thursday, we will be in the northwest quadrant of this storm, the comma head. It will be a steady rain at this point, and for around 12 to 24 straight hours as this storm moves so slowly. You can see this northwest edge centered over KC. Can you imagine if this was snow?

Noon Thursday Forecast

The energy of this storm began moving out over the plains states last night, and the Storm Prediction Center issued Tornado Watches over Kansas and Oklahoma as you can see here:

Tornado Watches Last Night

Look at the Tornado Watches from a year ago in the year 2020:

2020 Tornado Watches

It just blows my mind at how quiet Tornado Alley has been for the past two years. Look at how there were no Tornado Watches in 2020 over almost all of Kansas and a large chunk of Oklahoma. Well, something massive has changed. We began the week with tornadoes touching down in our viewing area, and the active weather has continued. What is that massive change? The LRC! A unique pattern started a few weeks ago, and we have been experiencing these storm systems quite differently already. What does it mean for the winter? We will have our winter forecast in about a month. We are still learning more about this weather pattern.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Rain increasing near and west of the state line this morning with the Kansas side having a mores steady rain. The rain will gradually spread eastward. High: Near 60°
  • Tonight: Rain, heavy at times. There is a chance of a few thunderstorms. Low: 49°
  • Thursday: There is a 100% chance of rain. The rain will likely be heavy at times with possibly a few thunderstorms. High: 52°
  • Friday: Cloudy with rain ending early in the day. Rainfall totals for this storm are expected to reach 3" or more in many spots. High: 54°
  • Outlook for Monday Night Football: The latest data is trending better with light winds and dry weather in the forecast. 50s for tailgating, and temperatures in the 40s for the game!

It's time to enter our snowflake contest. What are you predicting? When will we have our first inch of snow? The inch will be measured at the KSHB-41 Studios in front of our building by one of our meteorologists. The average date of the first inch is December 14th. Will it happen early again this year?

Snowflake Contest

Thank you for sharing a few minutes of your day with us, and reading our weather blog. Good luck with your entry into the snowflake contest.

Have a great Wednesday,