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Weather Blog: Another Hard Freeze, Big Warm Up, Update on Rain Chances

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Posted at 5:34 PM, Oct 18, 2022
and last updated 2022-10-18 22:37:59-04

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We had a hard freeze last night with a low of 25°, officially at KCI. The average date of our first freeze is 10/28. So, we were about 10 days early on the freeze. The average date of our first hard freeze is 11/5. So, we were around 2 weeks early for that.

St. Joseph was 15°, but their thermometer is in a low area near the river at Rosencrantz airport.

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Tonight may be a few degrees colder as there will be less wind as a surface high pressure drifts across the region. This data doesn't know about the low thermometer in St. Joseph and also one in Lawrence, KS. So, you can subtract 10 degrees from those lows seen below. Most locations tonight will be 20°-25°.

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The high on Wednesday will be 55°-60°, then 65°-70° Thursday followed by 80°-85° Friday! Highs over the weekend will be around 80° as well. Lows will be around 60° this weekend due to higher humidity coming from the Gulf of Mexico. The other reason for the warmer low temperatures will be a gusty south wind. They will gust 30-40 mph Saturday and 40-50 mph Sunday!

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Now to the chance of rain. If we get rain it will most likely occur next Monday. You can see on this data, which is from the 12z American model, we are on the western edge, but we are in it. The 18z American model came out and it has the rain east of here. It is going to depend on how far south a trough drops in the western USA. It is a week away and a newly evolving weather pattern, so nothing is even close to set yet.

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Have a great rest of your week
Stay healthy