Weather Blog: Another major storm will develop, affect Kansas City

Storm Closes Off
Posted at 7:49 AM, Oct 26, 2021
and last updated 2021-10-26 16:29:21-04

Good morning bloggers,

Snow! What did I say? On one of last nights model runs snow showed up on the prediction for Monday night. I am not ready to go there yet, and it is already off the latest data. We will look into that possibility soon, but this extremely active beginning to this year's LRC continues and let me introduce you to our next storm that will begin tomorrow morning. The rain will begin in the morning!

Today, we have a sunny start to the day, but if you are not up early you may not see the sun. Look at what is coming this way:

Low Cloud Satellite

The energy from the western storm heading our way has already produced record rainfall in California, and heavy snow in the Lake Tahoe area. This region has been plagued by drought for years, so this is a good sign for the season out there. But, with every bit of good news, it can also be bad news as rock slides and mudslides have been happening out west.

The dark shade, on the satellite picture above, shows the low clouds on this special sector of the satellite pictures that picks up the low clouds at night. Kansas City was completely clear as of 8 AM, and there is an extensive area of clouds surging our way. This surge is being caused by a developing storm system.

Upper Level Flow Wednesday Evening

This map above shows a strong storm spinning off the east coast as a closed upper low. This is a forecast for the flow at around 18,000 feet above us valid Wednesday morning. The trough heading towards Kansas City is negatively tilted, meaning it is tilted from northwest to southeast extending from Montana southeast to over the Texas Panhandle. When a storm is negatively tilted, it is more energetic and it helps create the conditions for a strong surface cyclone. Look at what happens next:

Storm Closes Off

The storm closes off by tomorrow night and slows down. This will likely result in a lot of rain, and two to three days worth of us being under the influence of this storm system. By Thursday morning, a strong surface cyclone will be developing near the Arkansas/Missouri border. Remember, a cyclone describes any counterclockwise turning low pressure area over the Northern Hemisphere (the turn clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere). So, a hurricane is a cyclone and this storm developing is becoming a cyclone. Look at this below:

Cyclone Develops

As it moves out into the plains later today, severe thunderstorms area again possible. A level 3 out of 5 risk has been placed west and southwest of our area. Thunderstorms that form will gradually move our way and arrive on Wednesday.

Today's Severe Weather Risk

Rainfall forecasts are all coming in around 2" or so in our area. This will add on to the over 3" that has fallen this month. Here is the rainfall forecast from the American Model (GFS):

Rainfall Forecast

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Increasing clouds becoming cloudy later this morning. Increasing south winds at 10-20 mph later today. High: 57°
  • Wednesday: A 100% chance of rain, possibly becoming heavy at times. High: 57°

Snow? Last nights American model showed snow in Kansas City Monday night. That same model already backed off of this possibility. We will discuss this in the coming days. Our snowflake contest will begin this week.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog, and for sharing in this weather experience. We will go in-depth and discuss all of the latest trends and bring you KC's most accurate forecast. Have a great Tuesday.