Weather Blog - Changes In The Weather Pattern This Week

Severe Weather Risk Tuesday Night
Posted at 7:53 AM, Apr 05, 2021
and last updated 2021-04-05 09:31:35-04

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system will begin developing Tuesday and then intensify Wednesday. This will become a strong upper level storm right near Kansas City on Wednesday evening. There will be some severe weather risks, but as usual they are targeting other areas, and not necessarily our region. We will still have to pay close attention to how this evolves, and we will be going in-depth with Kansas City's Most Accurate forecast.

The weather pattern is right on the LRC schedule. The LRC was named by you, the bloggers, almost 20 years ago, and it describes the cycling weather pattern. This year's pattern set up in October and November, and it is continuing to cycle today, and will continue through the rest of spring, summer, and until a new and unique weather pattern sets up once again next October. We are beginning the fifth cycle of this years pattern this week. Look at the pattern now, and compared to the beginning of the second LRC cycle below:

Storm System Forms Wednesday

You can't make this up:

500 mb Flow November 25, 2020

Look at the upper low near Kansas City on November 25th, at the beginning of LRC cycle 2. And, compare that to the upper low forecast to be in almost the exact same spot on Wednesday night. It is right on schedule. The conditions are similar now as they were in cycle 2, and producing a similar storm system.

Okay, so what does this mean? This means that we have the ability to forecast this set up 135 days ago to happen this week. Okay, again, so what does this mean? Well, we still need to see how the April version of the same pattern sets up. Let's take a look at the surface set up for tomorrow:

Surface Forecast Tuesday Evening

As the energy of this storm moves in overhead, it will create this surface set up on Tuesday evening. The Storm Prediction Center is quite a bit off on their risk of severe thunderstorms before midnight on tomorrow night. The risk of severe weather after 7 PM tomorrow is in this zone shown below:

Severe Weather Risk Tuesday Night

The yellow dashed line shows where we see the risk of severe thunderstorms lining up for Tuesday evening. This is well west of KC. Thunderstorms will likely develop out there, and then form into a complex of thunderstorms as it heads east and approaches our area around 4 AM Wednesday. By this time, there may be a smaller risk of severe weather and we will pay close attention to this early Wednesday morning. And, then the risk shifts east on Wednesday as this upper level storm forms.

We will discuss the trends on the data and more on 41 Action News today and tonight. In the mean time, let's enjoy this 81 degree day with south winds gusting to 35 mph later today.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary blog. Have a great start to the week.