Weather Blog: Could the Snowflake Contest end Monday-Tuesday?

Posted at 8:41 AM, Nov 12, 2022
and last updated 2022-11-12 10:06:07-05

Good Saturday bloggers,

Today is the deadline to enter the Snowflake Contest. In order to end the Snowflake Contest it takes 1" of snow to fall at KSHB 41 measured by one of our meteorologists.


The date of our average first one inch of snow occurs on Dec. 14. Last season we waited until New Years Day.


There is a storm system to track that might end the snowflake contest.

There are several weather features to analyze this Saturday.

The storm system that brought us more beneficial rain and the cold blast on Thursday is now exiting New England. It combined with the remnants of Nicole bringing flooding and severe weather to the east coast.

A smaller storm system is bringing snow to Illinois and Indiana Saturday morning. It brought a few inches of snow to southeast Missouri Friday night. Behind this system a large area of low clouds moved south into our region. We should see some sun this afternoon.

The storm system that could end the Snowflake Contest is now located in Oregon on its way to the southwest USA.


Let's detail the forecast day by day through Monday night.

The low clouds will try to break up this afternoon, but with sunset at 5:06 p.m. it does not leave much time for the sun to warm us up. So, our highs will be 30°-35° which is 20 to 25 degrees below average. It is also a bit below the average low of 35°. The 50° weather out west is not heading our way anytime soon.

The wind will decrease from NW 10-20 mph today to N 5-10 mph tonight. This still keeps wind chill values mostly in the teens.


We should see more sun and a southeast wind allowing us to warm to around 40°. That is still 15 degrees below average for a high temperature. It will still be cold out at Arrowhead as a southeast wind of 10-20 mph brings wind chill values to the 20s and 30s.


A Chiefs win will warm us up. It will be tough as the Jaguars have a good running back.


The storm is timed for Monday afternoon, night into early Tuesday.

Here are the forecast questions that still do not have a set answer.

1. Temperatures will be at or above 32° Monday afternoon. So, will the precipitation start as a mix of rain and snow?

2. If we see light precipitation because the main storm is tracking too far south, then even if it changes to snow it may not stick much. In this scenario, temperatures will have a tough time falling to 32° Monday night. So, how hard will it snow?

3. Will the storm track so far south that we barely see any rain or snow?

Bottom line...The Snowflake Contest will end if it snows hard enough to force the temperatures down to 30°-32°. It will only snow hard enough if the storm tracks far enough north to put us in the heavier precipitation.

As is, most data has the storm tracking too far south for us to see heavy enough snow to stick to end the Snowflake Contest. But, that does not mean we won't see snow and a minor accumulation.


We will see what it looks like Sunday after a day of new data.

Have a great weekend, stay warm, stay healthy.