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Weather Blog: Day by Day Through Memorial Day

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Posted at 12:52 PM, May 20, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-20 13:52:05-04

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We have been in this "Omega Block" weather pattern the last few days. This is why the weather has changed little from day to day as weather systems are moving slowly and the upper level flow is in the shape of the Greek letter Omega. The upper low to our east, across the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, has been close enough to send us clouds and just a few light showers. This pushed the ridge too far west to bring us the warmer and sunnier weather.

The block will break down Thursday and Friday as the trough in the west opens up and moves east. This will allow for a series of disturbances to track out of the Rockies and head in to the Plains and Midwest. This in turn, opens the door for daily chances of thunderstorms. It also means the low cloud producer will move away so we will also see more sunshine, but not total sunshine as now we will be tracking thunderstorms.

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WEDNESDAY: We may see a few peeks of sun this afternoon as very light showers track from east to west. Highs will be in the 60s.

THURSDAY: It will be partly to mostly cloudy allowing us to warm to 70-75. The first disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to Nebraska and Kansas. It looks like the rain will fall apart before it arrives. Wind: SE 5-15 mph.

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THURSDAY EVENING: A new round of thunderstorms will form in the western Plains behind the first dissipating area.

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By midnight Thursday night it will likely become a substantial area of thunderstorms from eastern Nebraska to southwest Kansas with some severe weather out there. We will have a nice Thursday evening and night, assuming that first area falls apart.

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FRIDAY: This data suggests the next wave of thunderstorms will mostly fall apart before it arrives. We are not so certain of this. So, the best chance of rain on Friday will be the morning into the early afternoon. Highs will reach to around 80 as it becomes more humid. Wind: SE 5-15 mph.

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SATURDAY: This looks like the day with the least chance of rain as we will be in between the Friday disturbance and the next one. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with highs 80-85 and a south to southeast wind at 10-15 mph.

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SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING: This is one of the times when we have an increased chance of thunderstorms. This data has most of the rain across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. The location is not set in stone.

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SUNDAY: Any thunderstorms will exit Sunday morning. This sets up the next chance for Sunday evening and night, and this looks like the best chance for widespread thunderstorms. This round may be quite heavy and possibly severe. We will see highs 75-80 with south winds 15-25 mph.

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MEMORIAL DAY: This data has the rain exiting during the morning leading to a mostly cloudy day with highs in the 70s along with a light wind. We have to watch this closely as a small upper level low may form in the southern Plains. If it forms in Texas then this is the most likely scenario. There is a chance it forms in Oklahoma or even Kansas. If this is the case, then we will see rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times all day. We lean with the former, but it will realistically take a few days to figure this out.

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The bottom line is that we will have daily chances of thunderstorms with low severe threats through the Memorial Day weekend. These will not be all day rain events, unless the system on Memorial Day forms farther north. All locations through Memorial Day should see at least .50" to 2" of rain. Some locations could see much more depending on how the thunderstorms set up.

Have a great rest of your week and Memorial Day weekend.
Keep an eye to the sky and stay healthy.