Weather Blog: Day by Day through Fourth of July

Posted at 11:56 AM, Jun 28, 2022
and last updated 2022-06-28 13:06:37-04

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We have had a great break from the heat and humidity with a second morning with lows in the 50s. Right now the Fourth of July still looks dry, but hot and humid. Between now and then we have some heat, humidity and thunderstorm chances.

There are locations that need rain, but we do not want it to rain on the Fourth of July. Let's see if we can please almost everyone.

Let's go day by day through the Fourth of July.

Highs will warm to the mid and upper 80s with the humidity still in check. The wind will remain light from the south.


Highs will warm to 90°-95° with the humidity still reasonable after lows in the 60s. It will still be another comfortable night. The wind will be south-southwest at 5-15 mph.


Highs will warm to the mid 90s with the humidity back to unreasonable after lows in the 60s. The wind will be south-southwest at 10-25 mph which will help a bit. A cold front will be approaching and this will help a bit as well for part of the Fourth of July weekend.


The front will get in here, interact with the heat and humidity, which will help to create a round or two of thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s to near 90°. The humidity will stay high as this front is weaker than this last front.


This data is from the American model. It has the bulls eye of heaviest rain south of Interstate 70, centered near Clinton, Missouri. The data yesterday had the heaviest north of I-70. The bottom line is that the chance of locations seeing heavy rainfall is high. The exact location of the heaviest rain is yet to be determined as we will have to see how the front sets up and how the thunderstorms form on the front. Upper level disturbances tracking out of the Rockies will play a role on thunderstorm location and timing as well.


If the American model is right, then that would be good news as the heaviest rain would occur over locations that really need it. Olathe, Kansas, to Marshall, Missouri, to Lee's Summit, Missouri, to Adrian, Missouri, have seen around 75% of average rainfall. And, most of that rain occurred during the last few days of May. Many of these locations have seen less than .25"-1" of rain during the last two weeks and just 25% of average rainfall in June. June averages 5.25" of rain, one of the wettest months on average.

Northwest Missouri needs rain as well, but they are not as dry in June as locations mentioned above.

Hopefully, this location trend of the heaviest rain, stays consistent.


Right now the forecast looks dry for the Fourth of July with highs around 90°. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s for fireworks. This forecast has remained consistent up to this point.


So, at this moment, it looks like rain in locations that need it the most and dry for the Fourth of July.

Have a great week
Stay healthy