KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Tuesday bloggers,
Our long awaited rain has arrived. The rain that is falling this evening is great for the drought conditions. It is a steady moderate to heavy at times rainfall. It soaks in well.
The old saying "be careful what you wish for" may come in to play tonight. There are growing signs that after the steady rain, which is from what was major hurricane Norma last weekend around Cabo San Lucas moves by, we may set up a training echo zone of torrential rain and thunderstorms.
As we look at the big picture, it is quite interesting as we are tracking three big weather features. The first is over us which is the remnants of Hurricane Norma. The second is a storm system tracking through the southwest USA. This system will track up I-35 and keep periods of showers and thunderstorms going Wednesday into early Thursday. The third is a strong storm system in the Pacific Northwest. This one will track to our north, but bring a strong cold front through Friday. There is a fourth, not formed yet. This is a storm system that could bring a cold rain ending as a mix of sleet and snow this weekend.
We are going to concentrate on the first two systems in this blog as there is little change to the strong cold front and weekend precipitation.
TONIGHT NOW-9 PM:
We will see the large area of steady moderate to heavy rain, from Norma, cross all locations. It will bring a widespread .50-1" of rain. Torrential downpours will be increasing to the southwest.
TONIGHT 9 PM-7 AM WEDNESDAY:
The large area of rain exits and is followed by a southwest-northeast oriented, 20-30 mile wide, band of rain and thunderstorms. Torrential rain will be in this band. We do not expect severe weather, but rainfall rates of 2" per hour are possible in some of the thunderstorms. The thunderstorms and rain will be moving southwest to northeast in the band as the band remains mostly in place. This sets up a classic "training echo" event.
This is being caused by a weak boundary left in the wake of Norma, deep moisture at all levels of the atmosphere and the overnight low level jet.
After 7 AM, the low level jet will break down and the band of thunderstorms will fall apart.
RAINFALL FORECAST TONIGHT-THURSDAY:
In the 20-30 mile wide zone there may be some rainfall amounts as high as 7"-10"! The zone on the data below is set up from Emporia, KS to Richmond, MO.
The exact location of the zone is still in question. It could be shifted 20-50 miles north or south. But, it will be in the area, and possibly through the KC area.
The second system will affect the area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. It will bring 1-2 more rounds of rain and thunderstorms. We do not expect these to have a training echo set up and the torrential rain in these rounds will be more scattered. But, if they fall over areas that get torrential rain tonight. They could cause flash flooding as well.
We do not expect severe weather with all of these thunderstorms. But, keep in mind, flash flooding kills more people per year than tornadoes and lightning combined. "TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN." Six inches of flowing water can float an SUV.
Have a great night and rest of your week.