Weather Blog - Dry For Most Of This Graduation Weekend

Rainfall Forecast Next 7 Days
Posted at 7:00 AM, May 14, 2021
and last updated 2021-05-14 08:19:43-04

Good morning bloggers,

Congratulations to all of the graduates out there. It is graduation weekend, and the weather is looking dry for most of the weekend. At the same time, I do think it will rain Saturday and Sunday, most likely in the morning hours before 10 AM. So, most of the late morning through afternoons look dry, but keep your eye to the sky!

For today, a disturbance is moving overhead this morning and it isn't producing any rain, which is not easy to do at this time of the year. A few sprinkles are still possible, but most of the day will be dry. With the overcast sky we are forecasting a high temperature between 65 and 70 degrees!

7 PM Friday Forecast

The best chance of rain the entire weekend may actually be early Saturday morning. This next map shows the forecast valid at 8 AM Saturday showing the scattered showers and a few thunderstorms extending from Illinois west into central Kansas. It will likely form west of KC overnight and by 3 AM it is going to be heading our way:

3 AM Saturday

The Saturday morning rain will likely dry out by 10 AM or 11 AM. And, then Saturday afternoon is looking pretty dry with just a slight chance of rain or thunderstorms.

8 AM Saturday Forecast

This next map shows the good chance of dry weather for the graduations and graduation parties:

Saturday Afternoon

The rain Sunday has a slightly better chance of developing in the morning and possibly lasting into the afternoon. Some of the models, however, have trended a bit drier Sunday as well:

10 AM Sunday Forecast

We have been showing 2" to 5" rainfall amounts in the next ten days, and this is still possible. The models have trended drier, especially over northern Missouri. Here is a look at the next week's rainfall forecast:

Rainfall Forecast Next 7 Days

There is a series of disturbances heading our way, and the LRC is spot on accurate on predicting this part of the pattern. We are in the part of the pattern that produced the brutal cold in February, and a wet storm at the end of December into New Year's Day.

Incredible LRC Exhibit Of Cycle 2 & Cycle 5 (Late December & Developing Now)

The mid-May version of this storm system is weaker, but it still will produce some severe weather risks over the western plains, well west of Kansas City. For KC we don't see any significant severe weather risks with these chances of showers and thunderstorms, but we still need to analyze each day to see how the pattern is setting up. Here is a look at today's severe weather risk:

Severe Weather Risk Today

Remember, Kansas is still sitting at 2 tornadoes for the entire year. There is a 2% chance of one over northwest Kansas later today, per the SPC. So, this tornado drought will likely continue. It's the kind of drought I love, but Storm Chasers are frustrated about!

  • Forecast for today: Mostly cloudy with some breaks of sunshine possible later. High: 65° to 70°
  • Saturday: Periods of clouds and sun! There is an 80% chance of rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 10 AM, then the chance goes down to 20% during the afternoon. High: 70°
  • Sunday: Just like Saturday, there is an 80% chance of rain and possibly a thunderstorm during the morning. The chance of rain Sunday afternoon is still 40%, but lower than in the morning. High: 73°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary blog. I hope everyone has a great Friday Night In The Big Town!